Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Exceedance probability for Barron River at Picnic Crossing


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Product list for Barron River at Picnic Crossing


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Exceedance probability for Barron River at Picnic Crossing(  )

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
10113.238102.550
2090.56768.816
3074.44952.070
4061.45439.765
5050.20931.266
6040.60924.037
7032.20418.678
8023.42213.924
9014.6959.208

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1178.594226.329
2160.266182.565
3150.235166.232
4141.495153.251
5136.092143.928
6130.458131.412
7125.161122.946
8121.071115.295
9117.083107.918
10113.238102.550
11110.64998.208
12108.17093.535
13105.82690.073
14103.58986.677
15101.17183.027
1698.46080.192
1796.57276.952
1894.55673.729
1992.63770.957
2090.56768.816
2188.95266.784
2286.76064.562
2385.24063.035
2483.65860.846
2581.85659.497
2680.37258.349
2778.79256.626
2877.43555.280
2975.88753.738
3074.44952.070
3172.78350.571
3271.42349.074
3370.02847.910
3468.31346.779
3566.91345.251
3665.91444.050
3764.91042.869
3863.91241.785
3962.87940.906
4061.45439.765
4159.91938.680
4258.76337.886
4357.60937.224
4456.30636.325
4555.27635.527
4654.37934.644
4753.22733.854
4852.12032.837
4951.28832.077
5050.20931.266
5149.19330.540
5248.15429.821
5347.23228.991
5446.31728.208
5545.39527.425
5644.63026.489
5743.61625.943
5842.64625.397
5941.63124.805
6040.60924.037
6139.62223.281
6238.81222.737
6338.00222.233
6437.21621.622
6536.33621.152
6635.49820.676
6734.52520.235
6833.88419.666
6933.09219.089
7032.20418.678
7131.24518.121
7230.57217.680
7329.73117.168
7428.85916.715
7527.97716.218
7627.13915.778
7726.11815.303
7825.27014.870
7924.39314.458
8023.42213.924
8122.69713.428
8221.97812.961
8321.23012.436
8420.35512.002
8519.31711.629
8618.50911.131
8717.67310.623
8816.58910.218
8915.4999.737
9014.6959.208
9113.7578.719
9212.9228.149
9311.7317.549
9410.6566.828
959.6136.317
968.2295.735
976.9234.896
985.5714.181
994.0523.355


About the exceedance probability product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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