Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Exceedance probability for Barron River at Picnic Crossing


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Product list for Barron River at Picnic Crossing



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Exceedance probability for Barron River at Picnic Crossing ( Jan 2014 )

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
10132.201155.772
20102.646112.836
3082.84888.584
4068.04769.276
5055.51855.199
6045.47842.791
7036.34533.380
8027.16524.915
9017.39416.451

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1226.076280.515
2196.984239.558
3179.048223.677
4169.410210.723
5162.070201.199
6155.145188.062
7149.613178.911
8143.382170.427
9137.416162.031
10132.201155.772
11128.072150.611
12124.062144.949
13120.903140.679
14118.125136.423
15115.257131.773
16112.294128.104
17110.012123.846
18106.917119.540
19104.865115.779
20102.646112.836
21100.483110.010
2298.464106.886
2396.700104.715
2494.012101.573
2592.07199.618
2689.85397.942
2787.60795.407
2885.75193.408
2984.35091.101
3082.84888.584
3181.52586.300
3279.90784.001
3378.49782.201
3476.79280.439
3575.40178.043
3673.62776.145
3772.16874.268
3870.58472.533
3969.18171.119
4068.04769.276
4166.90867.510
4265.20866.213
4363.97465.128
4462.67963.648
4561.21862.328
4659.96960.863
4758.78059.546
4857.79357.843
4956.44756.566
5055.51855.199
5154.55153.968
5253.62652.748
5352.50651.334
5451.38849.995
5550.36948.651
5649.36947.040
5748.43346.098
5847.30845.154
5946.38644.126
6045.47842.791
6144.78141.474
6243.80540.523
6342.87539.642
6441.98838.571
6541.06037.745
6639.99736.907
6739.13336.131
6838.32035.128
6937.36134.108
7036.34533.380
7135.21132.394
7234.53131.611
7333.47930.701
7432.72629.895
7531.70129.010
7630.46028.227
7729.66827.381
7828.79426.606
7927.91825.870
8027.16524.915
8126.28124.027
8225.16723.191
8324.26722.251
8423.29721.471
8522.27920.801
8621.57919.907
8720.30218.995
8819.22418.267
8918.29217.402
9017.39416.451
9116.26315.572
9215.12414.547
9314.09013.467
9413.20712.170
9511.96511.251
9610.79010.205
979.0358.697
987.4537.415
995.4415.936


About the exceedance probability product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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