Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Exceedance probability for Barron River at Picnic Crossing


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Product list for Barron River at Picnic Crossing



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Exceedance probability for Barron River at Picnic Crossing ( Feb 2014 )

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
10138.899155.107
20116.701118.841
30100.23596.507
4086.06477.316
5073.01562.384
6061.24148.556
7049.10537.719
8035.97127.817
9021.66017.917

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1194.466250.985
2177.775220.219
3168.081208.172
4160.862198.274
5156.677190.946
6152.510180.752
7148.539173.580
8145.253166.868
9141.939160.159
10138.899155.107
11136.260150.905
12133.790146.254
13131.075142.716
14127.976139.161
15126.094135.242
16124.144132.122
17121.946128.468
18119.950124.736
19118.213121.442
20116.701118.841
21114.935116.323
22112.678113.517
23110.639111.551
24109.011108.683
25107.368106.883
26105.380105.333
27104.130102.970
28102.778101.092
29101.58398.910
30100.23596.507
3199.03194.310
3297.70792.079
3396.13890.318
3494.58988.584
3593.11486.206
3691.39684.308
3789.94382.416
3888.59480.655
3987.21079.211
4086.06477.316
4184.83875.488
4283.65274.138
4381.93373.002
4481.07171.445
4579.73370.050
4678.26468.492
4776.80067.083
4875.79465.251
4974.38363.871
5073.01562.384
5171.77061.040
5270.58659.700
5369.56258.140
5468.69756.657
5567.39255.160
5666.01653.357
5764.78852.298
5863.63051.234
5962.37750.071
6061.24148.556
6160.02047.055
6259.08145.968
6357.91744.958
6456.38243.727
6555.28242.776
6654.16441.809
6752.99440.911
6851.66039.749
6950.59738.565
7049.10537.719
7147.72636.571
7246.39635.658
7344.86034.595
7443.87733.654
7542.44932.618
7641.39331.700
7740.05330.709
7838.72629.800
7937.47328.938
8035.97127.817
8134.76826.776
8233.42425.794
8331.99324.692
8430.89723.778
8529.45122.993
8627.98021.947
8726.49820.881
8825.21120.032
8923.38919.024
9021.66017.917
9119.96316.898
9218.21315.712
9316.53114.467
9415.20012.980
9513.10411.932
9611.17310.745
979.2219.050
987.2817.624
994.4356.000


About the exceedance probability product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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