Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Exceedance probability for Barron River at Picnic Crossing


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Product list for Barron River at Picnic Crossing



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Exceedance probability for Barron River at Picnic Crossing ( Jan 2012 )

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
10169.598155.772
20135.798112.836
30113.73288.584
4095.14669.276
5079.51355.199
6065.61042.791
7053.55533.380
8040.98924.915
9026.89116.451

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1266.228280.515
2239.283239.558
3223.261223.677
4210.509210.723
5199.853201.199
6193.445188.062
7187.015178.911
8181.215170.427
9175.627162.031
10169.598155.772
11164.723150.611
12160.866144.949
13156.727140.679
14153.126136.423
15150.303131.773
16147.493128.104
17144.662123.846
18141.806119.540
19138.341115.779
20135.798112.836
21132.689110.010
22129.866106.886
23127.459104.715
24125.442101.573
25123.36199.618
26121.11597.942
27119.51395.407
28117.43593.408
29115.43891.101
30113.73288.584
31111.47086.300
32109.57584.001
33108.06782.201
34106.05080.439
35104.25378.043
36102.53776.145
37100.13674.268
3898.10172.533
3996.68171.119
4095.14669.276
4193.63567.510
4291.64066.213
4390.17665.128
4488.53463.648
4586.71162.328
4685.39460.863
4783.82959.546
4882.43757.843
4980.96856.566
5079.51355.199
5177.63353.968
5276.16352.748
5374.90251.334
5473.29849.995
5572.41248.651
5671.05047.040
5769.72046.098
5868.33045.154
5966.93444.126
6065.61042.791
6164.32741.474
6263.16440.523
6362.39339.642
6461.32938.571
6560.22937.745
6659.05736.907
6757.63036.131
6856.37135.128
6955.11934.108
7053.55533.380
7152.46132.394
7251.18231.611
7349.73730.701
7448.46029.895
7547.26129.010
7645.69428.227
7744.49027.381
7843.44526.606
7942.04225.870
8040.98924.915
8139.59324.027
8238.28623.191
8337.17722.251
8435.38521.471
8534.38820.801
8633.09019.907
8731.80118.995
8829.96218.267
8928.18017.402
9026.89116.451
9125.28215.572
9223.81014.547
9322.38913.467
9420.87512.170
9519.54811.251
9616.98310.205
9714.5838.697
9812.1207.415
999.3915.936


About the exceedance probability product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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