Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Probability distribution for Barron River at Picnic Crossing


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Product list for Barron River at Picnic Crossing


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Probability distribution for Barron River at Picnic Crossing(  )

Basic Statistics
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
25% Quartile5.3584.997
Median7.4277.849
Mean8.2699.918
75% Quartile10.29012.364
Interquartile Range4.9327.367

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
122.61340.605
219.56131.740
318.03428.813
416.83426.604
515.94625.075
615.37723.086
714.79821.777
814.38720.614
913.97719.509
1013.65618.712
1113.29018.071
1212.97817.384
1312.74216.876
1412.48016.379
1512.24715.845
1611.97215.429
1711.71514.954
1811.50014.481
1911.34114.072
2011.12713.756
2110.88713.454
2210.72713.124
2310.58212.895
2410.44012.567
2510.29212.364
2610.16212.191
279.98611.930
289.85511.724
299.73411.488
309.59911.232
319.47611.000
329.35110.767
339.19810.585
349.06210.407
358.94910.165
368.8339.974
378.7229.785
388.5899.610
398.4959.467
408.3879.281
418.3029.103
428.1928.972
438.0838.862
447.9998.712
457.8858.578
467.7828.429
477.6888.295
487.5788.121
497.5117.990
507.4277.849
517.3207.722
527.2477.596
537.1577.449
547.0787.309
557.0127.168
566.9336.999
576.8536.899
586.7516.799
596.6696.689
606.5656.545
616.4776.403
626.3956.300
636.3216.204
646.2296.086
656.1435.995
666.0675.902
675.9805.815
685.9085.703
695.8355.587
705.7775.504
715.6935.391
725.6125.301
735.5165.195
745.4435.101
755.3564.997
765.2654.904
775.1634.802
785.0544.709
794.9704.619
804.8844.502
814.7804.392
824.6814.287
834.5804.168
844.4764.067
854.3793.981
864.2773.863
874.1623.742
884.0783.644
893.9603.526
903.8443.394
913.7133.271
923.5653.123
933.4202.964
943.2762.768
953.1142.625
962.8982.458
972.7062.207
982.4501.982
992.0451.706


About the probability distribution product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. The 25% quartile, also defined as the first quartile cuts off the lowest 25% of data. The 75% quartile, also defined as the third quartile cuts off the lowest 75%. The interquartile range, also called the middle fifty, is a measure of statistical dispersion, being equal to the difference between the third and first quartiles.
  9. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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