Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Probability distribution for Barron River at Picnic Crossing


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Product list for Barron River at Picnic Crossing


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Probability distribution for Barron River at Picnic Crossing(  )

Basic Statistics
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
25% Quartile5.1227.500
Median10.20414.045
Mean14.58621.954
75% Quartile19.03326.423
Interquartile Range13.91118.923

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
173.055137.335
257.83197.859
350.60485.527
447.05376.634
542.98970.422
639.30862.907
736.87958.036
834.90253.753
932.75549.792
1031.37346.993
1130.04344.780
1229.02642.450
1327.98340.736
1426.88039.059
1525.94337.298
1625.10735.961
1724.41734.416
1823.64132.901
1922.78331.623
2022.13430.648
2121.35429.723
2220.65328.678
2320.10828.022
2419.58527.026
2519.03426.430
2618.49825.919
2717.78825.131
2817.44824.521
2916.96123.859
3016.41023.112
3116.02522.459
3215.67121.783
3315.29321.273
3414.92420.800
3514.55420.115
3614.19719.602
3713.88119.083
3813.59618.616
3913.25618.228
4012.93017.732
4112.62017.258
4212.34416.918
4312.07816.625
4411.79016.239
4511.48315.894
4611.17815.504
4710.95815.172
4810.73114.730
4910.48214.394
5010.20414.045
519.99513.730
529.72113.425
539.43813.054
549.19912.727
559.00512.368
568.73711.977
578.48811.740
588.24611.499
598.09311.246
607.93410.902
617.71210.581
627.55610.347
637.40510.126
647.2079.866
657.0029.660
666.7789.453
676.5939.260
686.4179.012
696.2408.760
706.0528.580
715.8638.336
725.6918.142
735.5207.917
745.3267.718
755.1177.500
764.9237.306
774.7477.097
784.5776.906
794.4306.724
804.2486.487
814.0606.268
823.9186.060
833.7505.827
843.5495.634
853.3805.467
863.1985.245
873.0155.017
882.8264.836
892.6614.619
902.4754.381
912.2794.160
922.0873.902
931.8953.629
941.6113.299
951.3143.065
960.9322.796
970.6522.407
980.2972.073
990.0001.682


About the probability distribution product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. The 25% quartile, also defined as the first quartile cuts off the lowest 25% of data. The 75% quartile, also defined as the third quartile cuts off the lowest 75%. The interquartile range, also called the middle fifty, is a measure of statistical dispersion, being equal to the difference between the third and first quartiles.
  9. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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