Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Probability distribution for Barron River at Picnic Crossing


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Product list for Barron River at Picnic Crossing


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Probability distribution for Barron River at Picnic Crossing(  )

Basic Statistics
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
25% Quartile16.49817.619
Median21.09726.469
Mean21.78727.798
75% Quartile26.58136.434
Interquartile Range10.08418.815

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
142.30863.833
239.30558.113
337.71255.868
436.39754.020
535.43552.649
634.19950.737
733.39449.388
832.73948.121
932.16546.850
1031.68945.889
1131.25045.088
1230.77044.197
1330.28843.517
1429.89942.831
1529.54342.071
1629.18641.464
1728.90140.750
1828.61340.016
1928.36239.365
2028.10038.848
2127.72938.345
2227.44837.781
2327.09737.384
2426.85436.802
2526.58536.434
2626.34536.116
2726.14135.629
2825.85935.239
2925.63734.784
3025.32634.279
3125.02633.813
3224.83333.336
3324.58032.957
3424.30932.581
3524.07132.061
3623.85031.642
3723.64331.221
3823.39630.825
3923.22330.498
4023.04530.065
4122.82529.643
4222.61829.328
4322.42829.062
4422.20528.693
4522.02228.360
4621.82927.984
4721.64727.641
4821.46327.189
4921.27926.844
5021.09726.469
5120.93526.126
5220.76625.780
5320.58725.373
5420.41524.980
5520.27324.578
5620.08324.086
5719.88923.794
5819.71823.496
5919.58023.167
6019.39422.732
6119.20322.294
6219.02521.972
6318.84121.669
6418.65021.295
6518.44221.001
6618.24420.700
6718.05620.416
6817.84520.044
6917.65319.659
7017.49419.379
7117.29018.995
7217.09918.684
7316.88618.318
7416.72317.987
7516.49617.619
7616.24017.287
7716.04416.922
7815.80716.583
7915.56816.256
8015.36515.824
8115.15915.414
8214.89715.020
8314.61214.569
8414.33514.189
8514.00913.856
8613.78013.404
8713.54312.933
8813.26612.551
8912.97012.088
9012.69811.568
9112.40611.077
9212.01810.490
9311.5669.857
9411.0269.074
9510.3998.505
969.7707.840
979.1686.850
988.1195.977
996.2744.931


About the probability distribution product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. The 25% quartile, also defined as the first quartile cuts off the lowest 25% of data. The 75% quartile, also defined as the third quartile cuts off the lowest 75%. The interquartile range, also called the middle fifty, is a measure of statistical dispersion, being equal to the difference between the third and first quartiles.
  9. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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