Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Probability distribution for Barron River at Picnic Crossing


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Product list for Barron River at Picnic Crossing


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Probability distribution for Barron River at Picnic Crossing(  )

Basic Statistics
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
25% Quartile8.7025.716
Median10.0967.851
Mean10.2288.357
75% Quartile11.69010.431
Interquartile Range2.9884.714

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
116.14719.702
215.23717.448
314.77416.612
414.40915.945
514.09315.461
613.85114.803
713.60514.350
813.40213.933
913.19713.522
1013.06013.216
1112.92312.965
1212.79312.689
1312.68612.481
1412.57012.273
1512.48212.045
1612.40011.865
1712.31811.655
1812.22811.441
1912.13611.254
2012.04711.106
2111.97310.963
2211.90810.805
2311.82610.694
2411.75010.532
2511.69010.431
2611.60910.343
2711.52710.210
2811.45110.104
2911.3819.981
3011.2969.846
3111.2219.722
3211.1599.596
3311.1039.496
3411.0519.397
3510.9829.261
3610.9049.153
3710.8439.044
3810.7828.942
3910.7288.859
4010.6748.749
4110.6058.642
4210.5358.562
4310.4938.495
4410.4278.403
4510.3588.319
4610.2948.225
4710.2478.140
4810.2008.028
4910.1457.943
5010.0967.851
5110.0387.767
529.9787.682
539.9327.583
549.8717.488
559.8207.390
569.7587.271
579.7007.200
589.6527.129
599.6097.049
609.5626.945
619.5186.840
629.4686.762
639.4086.690
649.3536.600
659.3016.530
669.2446.457
679.1946.390
689.1406.300
699.0816.208
709.0156.141
718.9636.048
728.9135.974
738.8505.885
748.7845.806
758.7025.716
768.6365.636
778.5585.547
788.4725.464
798.3945.384
808.3175.277
818.2345.176
828.1745.078
838.0984.964
848.0114.868
857.9404.783
867.8414.667
877.7304.545
887.6644.444
897.5644.321
907.4444.180
917.3384.045
927.2023.881
937.0553.699
946.9443.465
956.7323.290
966.5813.076
976.3182.740
986.0382.419
995.6341.996


About the probability distribution product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. The 25% quartile, also defined as the first quartile cuts off the lowest 25% of data. The 75% quartile, also defined as the third quartile cuts off the lowest 75%. The interquartile range, also called the middle fifty, is a measure of statistical dispersion, being equal to the difference between the third and first quartiles.
  9. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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