Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Probability distribution for Barron River at Picnic Crossing


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Product list for Barron River at Picnic Crossing


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Probability distribution for Barron River at Picnic Crossing(  )

Basic Statistics
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
25% Quartile7.5854.997
Median10.4027.849
Mean11.5509.918
75% Quartile14.31812.364
Interquartile Range6.7337.367

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
131.27940.605
226.78931.740
324.59328.813
423.07826.604
522.01125.075
621.26323.086
720.63921.777
819.95120.614
919.44619.509
1018.99318.712
1118.52918.071
1217.99317.384
1317.62616.876
1417.25816.379
1516.91315.845
1616.58115.429
1716.26014.954
1815.96314.481
1915.68714.072
2015.41813.756
2115.18613.454
2214.91413.124
2314.69512.895
2414.47212.567
2514.32112.364
2614.12512.191
2713.92411.930
2813.76111.724
2913.53711.488
3013.35111.232
3113.21311.000
3213.01610.767
3312.84110.585
3412.65510.407
3512.47510.165
3612.3109.974
3712.1919.785
3812.0469.610
3911.8489.467
4011.6969.281
4111.5659.103
4211.4138.972
4311.3018.862
4411.1648.712
4511.0358.578
4610.9038.429
4710.7698.295
4810.6418.121
4910.5197.990
5010.4027.849
5110.2797.722
5210.1857.596
5310.0847.449
549.9697.309
559.8527.168
569.7446.999
579.6376.899
589.5036.799
599.3776.689
609.2706.545
619.1346.403
629.0266.300
638.9136.204
648.8036.086
658.6615.995
668.5715.902
678.4655.815
688.3535.703
698.2305.587
708.1275.504
718.0405.391
727.9355.301
737.8125.195
747.7065.101
757.5844.997
767.4564.904
777.3244.802
787.2074.709
797.0634.619
806.9554.502
816.8184.392
826.6744.287
836.5104.168
846.3434.067
856.2353.981
866.1123.863
875.9713.742
885.8553.644
895.6693.526
905.5053.394
915.3123.271
925.1183.123
934.9062.964
944.7312.768
954.5092.625
964.2632.458
973.9302.207
983.6291.982
993.1111.706


About the probability distribution product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. The 25% quartile, also defined as the first quartile cuts off the lowest 25% of data. The 75% quartile, also defined as the third quartile cuts off the lowest 75%. The interquartile range, also called the middle fifty, is a measure of statistical dispersion, being equal to the difference between the third and first quartiles.
  9. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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