Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Probability distribution for Barron River at Picnic Crossing


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Product list for Barron River at Picnic Crossing


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Probability distribution for Barron River at Picnic Crossing(  )

Basic Statistics
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
25% Quartile7.5567.500
Median14.32514.045
Mean19.71521.954
75% Quartile25.80726.423
Interquartile Range18.25118.923

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
189.428137.335
272.09397.859
364.82185.527
460.33676.634
555.70670.422
651.69662.907
748.43258.036
845.84753.753
943.54749.792
1041.58546.993
1140.24144.780
1238.68642.450
1337.20540.736
1435.96439.059
1534.86637.298
1633.80335.961
1732.62334.416
1831.92032.901
1930.72431.623
2029.96730.648
2129.08529.723
2228.24028.678
2327.41028.022
2426.53127.026
2525.81526.430
2625.12425.919
2724.40625.131
2823.76824.521
2923.32823.859
3022.69523.112
3122.13822.459
3221.54321.783
3320.99221.273
3420.50420.800
3520.08120.115
3619.71519.602
3719.28819.083
3818.86518.616
3918.25418.228
4017.84617.732
4117.44617.258
4217.11216.918
4316.76816.625
4416.41416.239
4516.06215.894
4615.76415.504
4715.44015.172
4815.01514.730
4914.70814.394
5014.32514.045
5114.04113.730
5213.71113.425
5313.42213.054
5413.11912.727
5512.84312.368
5612.51411.977
5712.12011.740
5811.83711.499
5911.54211.246
6011.21810.902
6110.99210.581
6210.74710.347
6310.50110.126
6410.2829.866
6510.0969.660
669.9149.453
679.6709.260
689.3679.012
699.1248.760
708.8268.580
718.6178.336
728.3668.142
738.2037.917
747.8697.718
757.5537.500
767.3027.306
777.0837.097
786.8296.906
796.6046.724
806.3916.487
816.1426.268
825.9176.060
835.7195.827
845.5035.634
855.2135.467
864.9115.245
874.6075.017
884.3824.836
894.1824.619
903.9354.381
913.7044.160
923.3863.902
933.1063.629
942.8093.299
952.4053.065
961.9322.796
971.5152.407
980.9362.073
990.3151.682


About the probability distribution product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. The 25% quartile, also defined as the first quartile cuts off the lowest 25% of data. The 75% quartile, also defined as the third quartile cuts off the lowest 75%. The interquartile range, also called the middle fifty, is a measure of statistical dispersion, being equal to the difference between the third and first quartiles.
  9. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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