Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Probability distribution for Barron River at Picnic Crossing


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Product list for Barron River at Picnic Crossing


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Probability distribution for Barron River at Picnic Crossing(  )

Basic Statistics
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
25% Quartile24.68321.615
Median34.19035.772
Mean35.46838.624
75% Quartile44.94152.469
Interquartile Range20.25930.854

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
176.69398.861
270.46589.178
366.63985.376
464.33882.246
561.95979.924
660.12976.686
758.68274.400
857.58772.254
956.35470.100
1055.28068.473
1154.17567.115
1253.33265.606
1352.39864.454
1451.39163.293
1550.62562.007
1650.05860.978
1749.47859.769
1848.86558.527
1948.04557.424
2047.53156.550
2147.02855.699
2246.58454.746
2345.98354.075
2445.48153.091
2544.94652.470
2644.43451.933
2743.98651.110
2843.53450.452
2943.08049.684
3042.55248.832
3142.04848.047
3241.65047.244
3341.09846.606
3440.66245.974
3540.16845.100
3639.76544.396
3739.33043.689
3838.84943.026
3938.40342.478
4038.00841.753
4137.62441.048
4237.25140.522
4336.91740.077
4436.46939.463
4536.13838.907
4635.70338.282
4735.27237.712
4834.88636.963
4934.59836.392
5034.19035.772
5133.79235.206
5233.32234.637
5332.89233.967
5432.42533.322
5532.00932.664
5631.64431.861
5731.26031.385
5830.86430.901
5930.53530.367
6030.13029.664
6129.66428.958
6229.35128.441
6329.02027.956
6428.67627.358
6528.31726.891
6628.00626.412
6727.68125.964
6827.32625.377
6926.91124.771
7026.50924.334
7126.15923.735
7225.76223.253
7325.43822.687
7425.07422.179
7524.67221.615
7624.21021.109
7723.78820.557
7823.37320.046
7923.03419.556
8022.49018.912
8122.04118.306
8221.65917.729
8321.25917.072
8420.68516.522
8520.05016.045
8619.66315.402
8719.23214.738
8818.71314.204
8918.05913.564
9017.43212.852
9116.70812.189
9216.08911.408
9315.27610.577
9414.4309.570
9513.4488.851
9612.4648.026
9711.2466.831
989.6755.810
998.0094.628


About the probability distribution product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. The 25% quartile, also defined as the first quartile cuts off the lowest 25% of data. The 75% quartile, also defined as the third quartile cuts off the lowest 75%. The interquartile range, also called the middle fifty, is a measure of statistical dispersion, being equal to the difference between the third and first quartiles.
  9. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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