Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Probability distribution for Barron River at Picnic Crossing


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Product list for Barron River at Picnic Crossing



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Probability distribution for Barron River at Picnic Crossing ( Mar 2014 )

Basic Statistics
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
25% Quartile41.75828.134
Median66.22551.394
Mean72.21463.407
75% Quartile96.33287.246
Interquartile Range54.57459.112

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1192.019213.924
2174.077186.209
3162.758175.404
4154.126166.553
5149.402160.019
6143.033150.962
7138.099144.616
8134.170138.700
9130.185132.810
10127.193128.393
11124.377124.731
12122.457120.693
13119.445117.631
14117.136114.565
15114.737111.196
16111.995108.523
17109.909105.405
18107.800102.231
19106.61499.442
20104.95797.247
21103.65995.129
22101.57492.776
2399.68791.133
2497.71788.742
2596.38087.247
2695.16785.961
2793.57684.008
2892.09382.460
2990.88880.665
3089.49178.696
3188.35176.901
3287.00875.083
3385.89573.653
3484.42572.248
3583.19770.326
3682.09468.797
3781.04567.277
3879.99965.865
3978.85864.710
4077.66463.197
4176.63961.742
4275.48460.668
4374.08959.766
4472.81458.533
4571.65657.429
4670.55556.199
4769.52355.088
4868.46653.646
4967.39052.561
5066.22551.394
5164.99550.340
5263.84749.291
5363.08348.070
5462.07946.911
5561.06445.742
5660.21744.335
5759.05043.509
5858.01842.679
5957.07541.773
6055.93640.592
6154.90739.423
6254.05538.576
6353.16537.789
6452.02836.830
6550.95636.087
6650.02435.333
6749.07834.633
6848.04833.725
6947.27032.800
7046.45532.138
7145.62431.238
7244.69130.523
7343.83729.689
7442.86928.948
7541.74628.133
7640.82827.410
7739.75326.627
7838.59425.908
7937.32825.224
8036.30224.335
8135.23123.505
8234.17522.721
8332.99021.839
8431.73121.105
8530.24120.473
8629.20319.627
8727.66118.762
8826.32218.071
8925.31917.247
9024.16916.339
9122.46315.497
9220.58614.512
9319.27113.471
9417.54312.216
9515.64811.324
9613.29110.304
9711.5278.828
988.4407.565
995.0926.098


About the probability distribution product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. The 25% quartile, also defined as the first quartile cuts off the lowest 25% of data. The 75% quartile, also defined as the third quartile cuts off the lowest 75%. The interquartile range, also called the middle fifty, is a measure of statistical dispersion, being equal to the difference between the third and first quartiles.
  9. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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