Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Probability distribution for Barron River at Picnic Crossing


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Product list for Barron River at Picnic Crossing



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Probability distribution for Barron River at Picnic Crossing ( May 2014 )

Basic Statistics
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
25% Quartile29.52617.619
Median35.35426.469
Mean35.92127.798
75% Quartile42.04736.434
Interquartile Range12.52118.815

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
160.81363.833
256.93358.113
354.99355.868
453.34054.020
552.19052.649
651.20150.737
750.09649.388
849.41248.121
948.71946.850
1047.92545.889
1147.47245.088
1247.02644.197
1346.53543.517
1446.07742.831
1545.49442.071
1645.17541.464
1744.71540.750
1844.36540.016
1943.91639.365
2043.61538.848
2143.33038.345
2242.99737.781
2342.61237.384
2442.33336.802
2542.04836.434
2641.78536.116
2741.49735.629
2841.13035.239
2940.85134.784
3040.50334.279
3140.19233.813
3239.92433.336
3339.64432.957
3439.41632.581
3539.13332.061
3638.83231.642
3738.52231.221
3838.28930.825
3938.02030.498
4037.71830.065
4137.45929.643
4237.22229.328
4336.99029.062
4436.77128.693
4536.58228.360
4636.28927.984
4736.03727.641
4835.77327.189
4935.55726.844
5035.35426.469
5135.13826.126
5234.89425.780
5334.68625.373
5434.49824.980
5534.30424.578
5634.06024.086
5733.85423.794
5833.64823.496
5933.45023.167
6033.19022.732
6132.97622.294
6232.74121.972
6332.54321.669
6432.33321.295
6532.11421.001
6631.83220.700
6731.62720.416
6831.36020.044
6931.10719.659
7030.81219.379
7130.60318.995
7230.35318.684
7330.11718.318
7429.80917.987
7529.52117.619
7629.20617.287
7728.94516.922
7828.64216.583
7928.24916.256
8027.91215.824
8127.59215.414
8227.25715.020
8326.91514.569
8426.60114.189
8526.19113.856
8625.69913.404
8725.28812.933
8824.94312.551
8924.63012.088
9024.13311.568
9123.58411.077
9223.04110.490
9322.4409.857
9421.7069.074
9521.0108.505
9620.0077.840
9719.3786.850
9817.7075.977
9916.1454.931


About the probability distribution product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. The 25% quartile, also defined as the first quartile cuts off the lowest 25% of data. The 75% quartile, also defined as the third quartile cuts off the lowest 75%. The interquartile range, also called the middle fifty, is a measure of statistical dispersion, being equal to the difference between the third and first quartiles.
  9. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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