Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Probability distribution for Barron River at Picnic Crossing


Return to catchment list
Product list for Barron River at Picnic Crossing



Download forecast data
Probability distribution for Barron River at Picnic Crossing ( Jan 2011 )

Basic Statistics
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
25% Quartile80.90829.012
Median126.30255.199
Mean136.40072.988
75% Quartile181.73399.617
Interquartile Range100.82570.605

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1342.474280.515
2313.255239.558
3291.927223.677
4280.058210.723
5268.248201.199
6258.974188.062
7252.678178.911
8244.457170.427
9239.060162.031
10234.520155.772
11229.790150.611
12224.590144.949
13219.784140.679
14215.562136.423
15210.713131.773
16207.399128.104
17204.216123.846
18200.682119.540
19197.719115.779
20195.143112.836
21192.277110.010
22189.277106.886
23187.073104.715
24184.291101.573
25181.75699.618
26179.90097.942
27177.33095.407
28175.08993.408
29172.22691.101
30169.51488.584
31166.95086.300
32164.49784.001
33162.33082.201
34160.02980.439
35157.60878.043
36155.89076.145
37153.98674.268
38151.31272.533
39149.52771.119
40147.47269.276
41145.59267.510
42143.57466.213
43140.79865.128
44138.48163.648
45136.67362.328
46134.44960.863
47133.04459.546
48131.24057.843
49128.81356.566
50126.30255.199
51124.72353.968
52122.44952.748
53120.85451.334
54119.09949.995
55117.25348.651
56115.47647.040
57113.61046.098
58111.54345.154
59110.05244.126
60108.21742.791
61106.15241.474
62104.01040.523
63102.39939.642
64100.70438.571
6599.19237.745
6697.07236.907
6795.59036.131
6894.17535.128
6992.53834.108
7091.00133.380
7189.25332.394
7286.91231.611
7384.85830.701
7482.91929.895
7580.89729.010
7679.22228.227
7777.75327.381
7876.46026.606
7974.86525.870
8072.40424.915
8170.20724.027
8268.30723.191
8366.10522.251
8464.22021.471
8562.16220.801
8659.54619.907
8757.39318.995
8854.83918.267
8951.92117.402
9049.22516.451
9146.54315.572
9243.87214.547
9341.00313.467
9438.66012.170
9535.20511.251
9632.00110.205
9728.4898.697
9823.8627.415
9917.9315.936


About the probability distribution product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. The 25% quartile, also defined as the first quartile cuts off the lowest 25% of data. The 75% quartile, also defined as the third quartile cuts off the lowest 75%. The interquartile range, also called the middle fifty, is a measure of statistical dispersion, being equal to the difference between the third and first quartiles.
  9. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


Creative Commons By Attribution logo
Unless otherwise noted, all material on this page is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution Australia Licence