Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Historical and exceedance probability for Barron River at Picnic Crossing


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Historical and exceedance probability for Barron River at Picnic Crossing( Oct 2014 )

Historical Observations
Average (1950+) (GL)Last year (2013) (GL)Minimum (2002) (GL)10 yr average (2004+) (GL)Maximum (2010) (GL)
Oct2.5362.5530.5562.7863.993
Oct-Nov5.0885.7631.0315.48611.526
Oct-Dec10.6958.8221.77214.40877.807

Notes:

  • The minimum and maximum are determined from the total for the 3 month period.

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1020.42118.712
2016.61413.756
3014.34311.232
4012.6049.281
5011.2007.849
609.9606.545
708.7335.504
807.4684.502
905.9363.394

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
133.54840.605
228.93731.740
326.30028.813
425.01726.604
523.77325.075
623.09823.086
722.21621.777
821.52820.614
920.88019.509
1020.42118.712
1119.92918.071
1219.44217.384
1318.97016.876
1418.55116.379
1518.19315.845
1617.81615.429
1717.51414.954
1817.25614.481
1916.88314.072
2016.61413.756
2116.36913.454
2216.11413.124
2315.84912.895
2415.59412.567
2515.38612.364
2615.16412.191
2714.92311.930
2814.71811.724
2914.52911.488
3014.34311.232
3114.17211.000
3213.97410.767
3313.78510.585
3413.64810.407
3513.43910.165
3613.2719.974
3713.0799.785
3812.9469.610
3912.7749.467
4012.6049.281
4112.4529.103
4212.3078.972
4312.1298.862
4411.9798.712
4511.8528.578
4611.7438.429
4711.6018.295
4811.4758.121
4911.3327.990
5011.2007.849
5111.0787.722
5210.9317.596
5310.8147.449
5410.6817.309
5510.5997.168
5610.4606.999
5710.3206.899
5810.1946.799
5910.0846.689
609.9606.545
619.8446.403
629.7206.300
639.6026.204
649.4786.086
659.3795.995
669.2315.902
679.0975.815
688.9985.703
698.8705.587
708.7335.504
718.6235.391
728.5275.301
738.3885.195
748.2665.101
758.1324.997
768.0174.904
777.8814.802
787.7724.709
797.6144.619
807.4684.502
817.2994.392
827.1614.287
837.0104.168
846.8544.067
856.7193.981
866.5523.863
876.4303.742
886.2663.644
896.0863.526
905.9363.394
915.7283.271
925.5353.123
935.3082.964
945.1012.768
954.8492.625
964.5682.458
974.2912.207
983.9521.982
993.2611.706


About the historical and exceedance probablity product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ


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