Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Historical and exceedance probability for Barron River at Picnic Crossing


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Historical and exceedance probability for Barron River at Picnic Crossing(  )

Historical Observations
Average (1950+) (GL)Last year (2011) (GL)Observed (2012) (GL)Minimum (2002) (GL)10 yr average (2002+) (GL)Maximum (1959) (GL)
Sep3.3263.5342.8111.1653.04411.104
Sep-Oct5.8668.1605.1091.7215.48115.388
Sep-Nov8.41911.1606.9172.1967.78118.983

Notes:

  • The minimum and maximum are determined from the total for the 3 month period.

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1011.16513.216
2010.25411.106
309.5549.846
408.9408.749
508.4587.851
607.9796.945
707.4896.141
806.8805.277
906.0854.180

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
113.87019.702
213.08517.448
312.63816.612
412.32915.945
512.04415.461
611.81514.803
711.62914.350
811.43613.933
911.29213.522
1011.16513.216
1111.04112.965
1210.92112.689
1310.81812.481
1410.72212.273
1510.61312.045
1610.52411.865
1710.45211.655
1810.38911.441
1910.31411.254
2010.25411.106
2110.18610.963
2210.08510.805
2310.00610.694
249.94110.532
259.86910.431
269.80910.343
279.74510.210
289.68610.104
299.6169.981
309.5549.846
319.4799.722
329.4099.596
339.3569.496
349.2949.397
359.2379.261
369.1829.153
379.1189.044
389.0688.942
398.9968.859
408.9408.749
418.8848.642
428.8348.562
438.7848.495
448.7308.403
458.6768.319
468.6368.225
478.5988.140
488.5518.028
498.5017.943
508.4587.851
518.4047.767
528.3617.682
538.3117.583
548.2687.488
558.2187.390
568.1687.271
578.1257.200
588.0867.129
598.0267.049
607.9796.945
617.9376.840
627.8906.762
637.8406.690
647.7906.600
657.7566.530
667.7026.457
677.6426.390
687.5936.300
697.5446.208
707.4896.141
717.4346.048
727.3815.974
737.3315.885
747.2565.806
757.1965.716
767.1335.636
777.0735.547
786.9955.464
796.9445.384
806.8805.277
816.7975.176
826.7295.078
836.6564.964
846.5904.868
856.5154.783
866.4534.667
876.3644.545
886.2744.444
896.1914.321
906.0854.180
915.9944.045
925.9013.881
935.7873.699
945.6473.465
955.4993.290
965.3293.076
975.1342.740
984.8472.419
994.4781.996


About the historical and exceedance probablity product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ


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