Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Historical and exceedance probability for Barron River at Picnic Crossing


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Product list for Barron River at Picnic Crossing


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Historical and exceedance probability for Barron River at Picnic Crossing(  )

Historical Observations
Average (1950+) (GL)Last year (2011) (GL)Observed (2012) (GL)Minimum (1986) (GL)10 yr average (2002+) (GL)Maximum (2010) (GL)
Dec5.7214.4031.1111.3578.79366.281
Dec-Jan21.18616.61710.9062.88226.629138.755
Dec-Feb47.21427.49818.1545.58654.853196.804

Notes:

  • The minimum and maximum are determined from the total for the 3 month period.

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1096.781102.550
2075.26668.816
3060.65352.070
4048.72739.765
5039.23831.266
6031.15924.037
7024.47918.678
8017.38513.924
9010.5459.208

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1160.149226.329
2142.956182.565
3133.117166.232
4125.533153.251
5118.433143.928
6113.341131.412
7107.717122.946
8103.561115.295
9100.535107.918
1096.781102.550
1194.10598.208
1291.44993.535
1389.57790.073
1487.42886.677
1584.99383.027
1682.93980.192
1781.04276.952
1879.29873.729
1977.08170.957
2075.26668.816
2173.58266.784
2271.90864.562
2370.56963.035
2468.80160.846
2567.43759.497
2666.05258.349
2764.64956.626
2863.25255.280
2961.90653.738
3060.65352.070
3159.35950.571
3257.52849.074
3356.28747.910
3455.16346.779
3553.98045.251
3653.05144.050
3751.98842.869
3850.95241.785
3949.86840.906
4048.72739.765
4147.67738.680
4246.64837.886
4345.71537.224
4444.56336.325
4543.46435.527
4642.68334.644
4741.74733.854
4840.95732.837
4940.07432.077
5039.23831.266
5138.44530.540
5237.67929.821
5336.96128.991
5436.10328.208
5535.15827.425
5634.44126.489
5733.78625.943
5832.70925.397
5931.83024.805
6031.15924.037
6130.64923.281
6229.88922.737
6329.07022.233
6428.50421.622
6527.71021.152
6627.13320.676
6726.52620.235
6825.89319.666
6925.23319.089
7024.47918.678
7123.83418.121
7223.14117.680
7322.32717.168
7421.55316.715
7521.01016.218
7620.34515.778
7719.51515.303
7818.64814.870
7918.05814.458
8017.38513.924
8116.86213.428
8216.27812.961
8315.75212.436
8414.98112.002
8514.18811.629
8613.58811.131
8712.95010.623
8812.29610.218
8911.4929.737
9010.5459.208
919.9098.719
929.0718.149
938.2457.549
947.5816.828
956.5806.317
965.7405.735
974.6144.896
983.7294.181
992.3673.355


About the historical and exceedance probablity product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ


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