Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Historical and exceedance probability for Barron River at Picnic Crossing


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Historical and exceedance probability for Barron River at Picnic Crossing(  )

Historical Observations
Average (1950+) (GL)Last year (2012) (GL)Observed (2013) (GL)Minimum (1993) (GL)10 yr average (2003+) (GL)Maximum (1974) (GL)
Feb25.91110.8817.2483.61228.22457.048
Feb-Mar60.48152.41520.6126.05666.465217.154
Feb-Apr78.33471.59031.9507.70287.036255.048

Notes:

  • The minimum and maximum are determined from the total for the 3 month period.

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
10125.828155.107
20103.750118.841
3088.26396.507
4073.55377.316
5062.18962.384
6050.73948.556
7039.46737.719
8028.30127.817
9016.41117.917

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1181.404250.985
2166.005220.219
3155.565208.172
4148.710198.274
5143.756190.946
6139.681180.752
7136.111173.580
8132.416166.868
9129.193160.159
10125.828155.107
11123.416150.905
12121.260146.254
13118.558142.716
14115.429139.161
15112.863135.242
16110.978132.122
17108.586128.468
18107.202124.736
19105.606121.442
20103.750118.841
21102.000116.323
22100.832113.517
2398.314111.551
2496.736108.683
2595.312106.883
2693.956105.333
2792.396102.970
2891.229101.092
2989.63998.910
3088.26396.507
3186.93094.310
3285.29392.079
3384.02190.318
3482.63988.584
3581.29686.206
3679.74384.308
3777.95782.416
3876.72780.655
3975.02079.211
4073.55377.316
4172.63475.488
4271.38174.138
4370.09773.002
4469.06071.445
4568.03470.050
4666.51868.492
4765.29967.083
4864.16765.251
4963.29863.871
5062.18962.384
5161.06861.040
5259.61959.700
5358.50958.140
5457.30956.657
5556.27255.160
5655.02553.357
5753.76152.298
5852.73251.234
5951.69850.071
6050.73948.556
6149.50347.055
6248.48045.968
6347.32444.958
6446.31143.727
6545.42842.776
6644.38541.809
6743.41640.911
6842.04539.749
6940.85038.565
7039.46737.719
7138.24036.571
7237.16735.658
7336.23534.595
7434.98833.654
7533.74032.618
7632.57631.700
7731.45130.709
7830.53329.800
7929.29028.938
8028.30127.817
8127.22826.776
8225.92125.794
8324.65624.692
8423.54023.778
8522.40422.993
8621.05521.947
8719.78220.881
8818.74420.032
8917.58119.024
9016.41117.917
9115.19216.898
9213.69215.712
9312.32914.467
9410.96312.980
959.44711.932
967.98610.745
976.4509.050
984.7427.624
992.8216.000


About the historical and exceedance probablity product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ


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