Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Historical and exceedance probability for Barron River at Picnic Crossing


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Historical and exceedance probability for Barron River at Picnic Crossing(  )

Historical Observations
Average (1950+) (GL)Last year (2012) (GL)Observed (2013) (GL)Minimum (1993) (GL)10 yr average (2003+) (GL)Maximum (1974) (GL)
Mar34.57041.53413.3642.44438.241160.106
Mar-Apr52.42460.70924.7024.09058.812198.000
Mar-May65.09973.39835.5467.31272.305220.811

Notes:

  • The minimum and maximum are determined from the total for the 3 month period.

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1092.243128.393
2071.99397.247
3058.75978.696
4049.17463.197
5040.25751.394
6032.23940.592
7025.61232.138
8018.49724.335
9010.58216.339

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1151.993213.924
2135.208186.209
3124.710175.404
4116.523166.553
5110.563160.019
6106.255150.962
7101.328144.616
898.237138.700
995.694132.810
1092.243128.393
1189.086124.731
1286.585120.693
1384.405117.631
1481.895114.565
1580.466111.196
1678.728108.523
1776.859105.405
1874.837102.231
1973.75399.442
2071.99397.247
2170.51295.129
2268.89292.776
2367.48791.133
2466.11288.742
2564.53887.247
2663.29685.961
2761.84784.008
2860.66482.460
2959.79280.665
3058.75978.696
3157.82976.901
3256.74775.083
3355.57173.653
3454.62072.248
3553.86770.326
3653.15868.797
3752.35967.277
3851.19265.865
3950.25964.710
4049.17463.197
4148.40161.742
4247.44260.668
4346.56159.766
4445.65558.533
4544.61557.429
4643.74956.199
4742.93655.088
4842.14353.646
4941.06552.561
5040.25751.394
5139.55650.340
5238.68949.291
5337.86048.070
5437.02846.911
5536.21045.742
5635.51844.335
5734.83043.509
5834.02842.679
5933.15241.773
6032.23940.592
6131.46739.423
6230.86638.576
6330.19537.789
6429.50336.830
6528.68536.087
6628.01935.333
6727.33134.633
6826.75533.725
6926.09532.800
7025.61232.138
7125.03731.238
7224.37630.523
7323.72329.689
7423.03728.948
7522.39428.133
7621.38827.410
7720.81226.627
7820.09625.908
7919.11325.224
8018.49724.335
8117.83723.505
8217.15122.721
8316.51121.839
8415.49721.105
8514.68420.473
8613.91219.627
8713.29818.762
8812.51818.071
8911.44017.247
9010.58216.339
919.77615.497
928.83414.512
937.81613.471
946.66512.216
955.53111.324
964.33510.304
972.9838.828
980.9987.565
990.0006.098


About the historical and exceedance probablity product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ


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