Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Historical and exceedance probability for Barron River at Picnic Crossing


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Product list for Barron River at Picnic Crossing


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Historical and exceedance probability for Barron River at Picnic Crossing(  )

Historical Observations
Average (1950+) (GL)Last year (2012) (GL)Observed (2013) (GL)Minimum (1992) (GL)10 yr average (2003+) (GL)Maximum (1950) (GL)
Jun8.87011.54110.2801.5398.90318.356
Jun-Jul15.57518.59219.7842.94616.21133.217
Jun-Aug20.43822.92325.3214.10421.16043.744

Notes:

  • The minimum and maximum are determined from the total for the 3 month period.

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1024.43531.323
2022.59827.177
3021.19224.457
4020.13421.914
5019.08919.701
6018.08417.339
7017.10015.141
8015.85012.694
9014.1489.546

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
130.11541.796
228.35638.464
327.25437.155
426.57236.077
526.09535.277
625.60934.160
725.31233.372
824.94632.630
924.66131.886
1024.43531.323
1124.16230.853
1223.95830.330
1323.74829.930
1423.56129.527
1523.41529.080
1623.27128.722
1723.08128.301
1822.91827.868
1922.75527.483
2022.59827.177
2122.46926.879
2222.32626.545
2322.13526.309
2421.96625.963
2521.82925.744
2621.72925.555
2721.59825.265
2821.45225.032
2921.31224.760
3021.19224.457
3121.07424.178
3220.98523.892
3320.87323.664
3420.77623.438
3520.67223.124
3620.55422.871
3720.44622.616
3820.36222.376
3920.23522.178
4020.13421.914
4120.03921.657
4219.93621.465
4319.82921.301
4419.71121.076
4519.62720.871
4619.52820.639
4719.42020.428
4819.32120.148
4919.18919.934
5019.08919.701
5118.99619.487
5218.88019.272
5318.77019.016
5418.65718.769
5518.56518.516
5618.48318.204
5718.37618.018
5818.28717.829
5918.18517.618
6018.08417.339
6117.99717.057
6217.90316.849
6317.81616.652
6417.74416.408
6517.62916.216
6617.53116.018
6717.43815.831
6817.32415.585
6917.22515.328
7017.10015.141
7116.99114.883
7216.85714.674
7316.74814.425
7416.62314.200
7516.49013.947
7616.35713.718
7716.21713.465
7816.11813.229
7916.00212.999
8015.85012.694
8115.71412.402
8215.56112.120
8315.43511.794
8415.27811.517
8515.13911.272
8614.94810.938
8714.73610.586
8814.50110.298
8914.3459.946
9014.1489.546
9113.9739.164
9213.7038.703
9313.4668.199
9413.2127.565
9512.8437.098
9612.4326.546
9711.9655.712
9811.2884.967
9910.4534.065


About the historical and exceedance probablity product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ


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