Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Historical and exceedance probability for Barron River at Picnic Crossing


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Historical and exceedance probability for Barron River at Picnic Crossing(  )

Historical Observations
Average (1950+) (GL)Last year (2012) (GL)Observed (2013) (GL)Minimum (1992) (GL)10 yr average (2003+) (GL)Maximum (1950) (GL)
Jul6.7057.0529.5041.4077.30814.861
Jul-Aug11.56811.38215.0402.56512.25725.388
Jul-Sep14.88614.19419.4003.50215.46632.369

Notes:

  • The minimum and maximum are determined from the total for the 3 month period.

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1019.83822.555
2018.13819.644
3017.02217.738
4016.05915.960
5015.11314.418
6014.26212.777
7013.32211.254
8012.1659.564
9010.6707.386

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
124.33629.923
222.96527.577
322.30826.656
421.64425.898
521.17625.335
620.87524.549
720.54823.995
820.34823.474
920.07122.950
1019.83822.555
1119.63122.224
1219.44321.857
1319.27721.576
1419.09821.293
1518.90220.979
1618.73320.728
1718.55220.432
1818.38020.128
1918.25219.858
2018.13819.644
2118.02719.435
2217.90919.200
2317.79819.035
2417.70418.793
2517.58318.639
2617.45718.507
2717.34018.303
2817.23018.141
2917.12917.950
3017.02217.738
3116.92417.543
3216.81417.343
3316.71417.183
3416.62117.025
3516.50216.806
3616.40216.629
3716.31716.451
3816.22416.283
3916.15016.144
4016.05915.960
4115.95115.781
4215.86315.647
4315.74515.533
4415.63715.375
4515.54115.233
4615.45015.071
4715.36914.924
4815.27314.729
4915.19514.580
5015.11314.418
5115.02214.269
5214.93014.119
5314.85613.941
5414.75213.770
5514.69213.593
5614.61813.377
5714.52713.248
5814.45313.116
5914.34712.970
6014.26212.777
6114.17612.581
6214.08112.436
6313.97912.300
6413.89312.131
6513.82211.998
6613.71311.861
6713.64611.731
6813.55411.561
6913.45911.383
7013.32211.254
7113.22511.076
7213.10110.931
7313.00310.759
7412.88110.603
7512.77410.429
7612.66110.271
7712.53910.096
7812.4279.933
7912.2859.774
8012.1659.564
8112.0419.362
8211.8969.167
8311.7838.942
8411.6638.750
8511.5078.582
8611.3998.350
8711.2418.107
8811.0607.908
8910.8727.664
9010.6707.386
9110.4617.121
9210.2426.799
9310.0486.447
949.7006.002
959.4615.672
969.1655.280
978.7094.682
988.1094.140
997.1093.471


About the historical and exceedance probablity product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ


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