Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Historical and exceedance probability for Barron River at Picnic Crossing


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Product list for Barron River at Picnic Crossing


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Historical and exceedance probability for Barron River at Picnic Crossing(  )

Historical Observations
Average (1950+) (GL)Last year (2012) (GL)Observed (2013) (GL)Minimum (1992) (GL)10 yr average (2003+) (GL)Maximum (1950) (GL)
Aug4.8634.3315.5361.1584.94910.527
Aug-Sep8.1817.1429.8962.0958.15717.508
Aug-Oct10.7179.44012.4492.86610.76922.506

Notes:

  • The minimum and maximum are determined from the total for the 3 month period.

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1015.64916.417
2014.13714.162
3013.08412.701
4012.22611.353
5011.42510.201
6010.6868.997
709.9057.903
808.9626.718
907.8215.240

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
119.76822.188
218.50720.346
317.85019.623
417.37419.029
516.92918.588
616.62817.974
716.31517.540
816.03917.133
915.84816.726
1015.64916.417
1115.48116.160
1215.34815.875
1315.15615.657
1415.00215.437
1514.82815.194
1614.66614.999
1714.50614.770
1814.38914.536
1914.28814.327
2014.13714.162
2114.03014.001
2213.93113.821
2313.81713.694
2413.71013.507
2513.58413.390
2613.47913.288
2713.39113.132
2813.29013.008
2913.19412.862
3013.08412.701
3112.99412.552
3212.90212.399
3312.80812.278
3412.72312.158
3512.63611.992
3612.55311.858
3712.46511.723
3812.38611.597
3912.30411.492
4012.22611.353
4112.13511.218
4212.05311.118
4311.98611.032
4411.88810.914
4511.81110.807
4611.74410.687
4711.65810.577
4811.56910.432
4911.50110.322
5011.42510.201
5111.34210.091
5211.2569.980
5311.1749.849
5411.1029.722
5511.0369.593
5610.9509.434
5710.8759.340
5810.8069.244
5910.7489.137
6010.6868.997
6110.5998.855
6210.5248.750
6310.4448.652
6410.3618.530
6510.2788.434
6610.2138.336
6710.1418.243
6810.0548.121
699.9687.995
709.9057.903
719.8207.776
729.7327.674
739.6317.552
749.5347.443
759.4547.320
769.3677.210
779.2707.088
789.1836.974
799.0946.864
808.9626.718
818.8726.579
828.7656.445
838.6516.291
848.5746.160
858.4766.045
868.3435.888
878.2165.724
888.1085.589
897.9465.425
907.8215.240
917.6925.063
927.5174.849
937.3354.616
947.1514.323
956.9384.106
966.6713.848
976.2963.456
985.9513.098
995.4012.655


About the historical and exceedance probablity product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ


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