Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Historical and exceedance probability for Barron River at Picnic Crossing


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Historical and exceedance probability for Barron River at Picnic Crossing ( Jun 2014 )

Historical Observations
Average (1950+) (GL)Last year (2013) (GL)Observed (2014) (GL)Minimum (1992) (GL)10 yr average (2004+) (GL)Maximum (1950) (GL)
Jun8.89210.28017.1991.5399.57418.356
Jun-Jul15.64019.78427.8362.94617.33033.217
Jun-Aug20.51425.32136.3464.10422.55143.744

Notes:

  • The minimum and maximum are determined from the total for the 3 month period.

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1032.45131.323
2030.30927.177
3028.88824.457
4027.56021.914
5026.38819.701
6025.29017.339
7024.08315.141
8022.67212.694
9020.7249.546

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
138.89341.796
237.10638.464
335.80037.155
435.12436.077
534.61435.277
633.93934.160
733.42433.372
833.03332.630
932.70231.886
1032.45131.323
1132.21830.853
1231.96930.330
1331.73529.930
1431.46829.527
1531.24529.080
1631.06328.722
1730.85528.301
1830.64927.868
1930.46327.483
2030.30927.177
2130.12026.879
2229.97826.545
2329.80326.309
2429.67525.963
2529.53025.744
2629.41425.555
2729.28825.265
2829.12325.032
2929.01724.760
3028.88824.457
3128.77424.178
3228.62823.892
3328.45623.664
3428.33523.438
3528.16123.124
3628.04922.871
3727.92422.616
3827.81822.376
3927.68822.178
4027.56021.914
4127.45821.657
4227.34821.465
4327.18421.301
4427.04621.076
4526.92620.871
4626.81920.639
4726.69720.428
4826.59020.148
4926.48019.934
5026.38819.701
5126.25919.487
5226.14019.272
5326.05419.016
5425.94518.769
5525.83318.516
5625.73118.204
5725.62818.018
5825.51017.829
5925.42617.618
6025.29017.339
6125.18717.057
6225.08516.849
6324.98716.652
6424.85916.408
6524.75116.216
6624.63316.018
6724.48415.831
6824.34615.585
6924.22315.328
7024.08315.141
7123.99014.883
7223.88014.674
7323.72714.425
7423.58914.200
7523.45513.947
7623.26813.718
7723.10013.465
7822.97913.229
7922.81812.999
8022.67212.694
8122.50512.402
8222.38312.120
8322.22411.794
8422.05911.517
8521.88211.272
8621.64010.938
8721.43810.586
8821.18310.298
8920.9719.946
9020.7249.546
9120.4739.164
9220.1548.703
9319.8958.199
9419.5537.565
9519.1797.098
9618.7166.546
9718.1265.712
9817.3674.967
9916.3454.065


About the historical and exceedance probablity product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ


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