Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Historical and exceedance probability for Barron River at Picnic Crossing


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Historical and exceedance probability for Barron River at Picnic Crossing ( Jan 2009 )

Historical Observations
Average (1950+) (GL)Last year (2008) (GL)Observed (2009) (GL)Minimum (1993) (GL)10 yr average (1999+) (GL)Maximum (1974) (GL)
Jan14.27517.72523.3291.6589.42159.136
Jan-Feb39.44762.96271.6845.26948.094116.184
Jan-Mar73.834152.14291.8367.71390.618276.290

Notes:

  • The minimum and maximum are determined from the total for the 3 month period.

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
10194.822155.772
20158.122112.836
30135.41588.584
40114.54069.276
5097.03955.199
6081.08642.791
7067.42533.380
8051.66024.915
9034.56816.451

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1292.429280.515
2267.691239.558
3251.481223.677
4236.935210.723
5226.096201.199
6218.461188.062
7212.804178.911
8206.948170.427
9200.608162.031
10194.822155.772
11189.920150.611
12185.313144.949
13180.908140.679
14177.416136.423
15174.464131.773
16171.116128.104
17166.993123.846
18164.629119.540
19161.024115.779
20158.122112.836
21155.287110.010
22152.568106.886
23149.795104.715
24147.336101.573
25144.82799.618
26142.82497.942
27141.08895.407
28139.06493.408
29136.93591.101
30135.41588.584
31132.75486.300
32130.28084.001
33128.95182.201
34126.45680.439
35124.17478.043
36122.39276.145
37120.41274.268
38118.06772.533
39116.24071.119
40114.54069.276
41112.70767.510
42111.05266.213
43109.64765.128
44107.99963.648
45106.28962.328
46104.42460.863
47102.48859.546
48100.42057.843
4998.75956.566
5097.03955.199
5195.03353.968
5292.96652.748
5391.46351.334
5490.00449.995
5588.73348.651
5687.07547.040
5785.23246.098
5883.66945.154
5982.24144.126
6081.08642.791
6179.33841.474
6278.00840.523
6376.87839.642
6475.68538.571
6574.26637.745
6673.01336.907
6771.83536.131
6870.05535.128
6968.68434.108
7067.42533.380
7165.96532.394
7264.38931.611
7363.14930.701
7460.98729.895
7559.13929.010
7657.68228.227
7756.24727.381
7854.70426.606
7953.12325.870
8051.66024.915
8150.06624.027
8248.60423.191
8346.87722.251
8445.22021.471
8543.86120.801
8641.98819.907
8740.20718.995
8838.55618.267
8936.26917.402
9034.56816.451
9132.68315.572
9230.50214.547
9328.94113.467
9426.98412.170
9524.94311.251
9621.96110.205
9719.1878.697
9815.8897.415
9912.0985.936


About the historical and exceedance probablity product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ


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