Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Historical and exceedance probability for Barron River at Picnic Crossing


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Historical and exceedance probability for Barron River at Picnic Crossing ( Jan 2010 )

Historical Observations
Average (1950+) (GL)Last year (2009) (GL)Observed (2010) (GL)Minimum (1993) (GL)10 yr average (2000+) (GL)Maximum (1974) (GL)
Jan14.42623.32920.6461.65810.36959.136
Jan-Feb39.98571.68450.5925.26944.499116.184
Jan-Mar74.13491.83672.2537.71379.663276.290

Notes:

  • The minimum and maximum are determined from the total for the 3 month period.

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1089.370155.772
2065.264112.836
3050.76688.584
4040.18969.276
5032.74455.199
6025.65742.791
7019.89933.380
8014.27324.915
908.73816.451

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1174.977280.515
2145.150239.558
3131.273223.677
4122.574210.723
5114.784201.199
6108.075188.062
7103.330178.911
896.617170.427
992.454162.031
1089.370155.772
1186.805150.611
1283.704144.949
1381.417140.679
1478.533136.423
1575.821131.773
1673.139128.104
1771.002123.846
1868.479119.540
1966.572115.779
2065.264112.836
2163.742110.010
2262.195106.886
2360.663104.715
2458.577101.573
2557.02699.618
2655.68097.942
2754.34295.407
2853.24393.408
2951.98791.101
3050.76688.584
3149.63886.300
3248.47484.001
3347.12982.201
3446.03980.439
3544.81678.043
3643.90876.145
3743.02674.268
3841.93672.533
3940.95071.119
4040.18969.276
4139.27267.510
4238.61466.213
4337.85665.128
4436.97363.648
4536.20462.328
4635.42960.863
4734.84959.546
4834.11357.843
4933.53756.566
5032.74455.199
5131.93153.968
5231.28852.748
5330.43651.334
5429.66849.995
5529.04448.651
5628.32447.040
5727.68846.098
5826.99845.154
5926.30044.126
6025.65742.791
6124.98441.474
6224.31340.523
6323.84439.642
6423.41738.571
6522.88137.745
6622.32936.907
6721.77436.131
6821.11435.128
6920.48934.108
7019.89933.380
7119.39732.394
7218.88431.611
7318.41930.701
7417.72529.895
7517.28329.010
7616.74428.227
7716.07827.381
7815.47926.606
7914.77625.870
8014.27324.915
8113.72024.027
8213.10723.191
8312.61922.251
8412.04221.471
8511.40220.801
8610.69719.907
8710.22218.995
889.72318.267
899.30617.402
908.73816.451
918.17715.572
927.57014.547
936.84113.467
946.07712.170
955.32311.251
964.59610.205
973.7938.697
982.7967.415
991.4055.936


About the historical and exceedance probablity product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ


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