Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Exceedance probability for Diglum Creek at Marlua


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Product list for Diglum Creek at Marlua



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Exceedance probability for Diglum Creek at Marlua ( Jan 2013 )

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)		Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1041.456
2021.618
3012.997
407.828
504.966
603.021
701.877
801.080
900.497

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)		Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1106.414
285.128
376.822
470.029
565.029
658.138
753.356
848.950
944.634
1041.456
1138.871
1236.078
1334.009
1431.983
1529.816
1628.144
1726.251
1824.392
1922.817
2021.618
2120.497
2219.291
2318.475
2417.326
2516.631
2616.047
2715.186
2814.525
2913.782
3012.997
3112.307
3211.634
3311.122
3410.634
359.990
369.496
379.022
388.596
398.257
407.828
417.429
427.143
436.909
446.596
456.325
466.031
475.773
485.449
495.213
504.966
514.750
524.541
534.305
544.088
553.876
563.629
573.489
583.352
593.206
603.021
612.844
622.720
632.607
642.474
652.373
662.274
672.183
682.069
691.956
701.877
711.773
721.693
731.602
741.523
751.439
761.367
771.290
781.222
791.159
801.080
811.009
820.944
830.874
840.817
850.770
860.709
870.650
880.604
890.552
900.497
910.449
920.395
930.342
940.284
950.245
960.204
970.152
980.113
990.075


About the exceedance probability product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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