Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Historical and exceedance probability for Diglum Creek at Marlua


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Product list for Diglum Creek at Marlua


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Historical and exceedance probability for Diglum Creek at Marlua( May 2013 )

Historical Observations
Average (1970+) (GL)Last year (2012) (GL)Minimum (1970) (GL)10 yr average (2003+) (GL)Maximum (1983) (GL)
May1.0260.6710.0100.54513.491
May-Jun1.4051.2200.0170.94514.317
May-Jul1.842NA0.0281.23514.432

Notes:

  • The minimum and maximum are determined from the total for the 3 month period.

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)		Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
104.547
202.388
301.537
401.012
500.700
600.468
700.320
800.205
900.110

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)		Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
115.561
211.417
39.889
48.717
57.866
66.810
76.117
85.505
94.942
104.547
114.238
123.917
133.684
143.459
153.227
163.053
172.855
182.664
192.507
202.388
212.277
222.154
232.078
241.964
251.897
261.840
271.753
281.687
291.616
301.537
311.469
321.400
331.349
341.302
351.235
361.186
371.137
381.093
391.057
401.012
410.970
420.940
430.914
440.881
450.851
460.818
470.791
480.754
490.727
500.700
510.675
520.651
530.623
540.598
550.572
560.543
570.526
580.509
590.492
600.468
610.446
620.431
630.416
640.399
650.386
660.373
670.361
680.346
690.331
700.320
710.306
720.294
730.282
740.270
750.258
760.248
770.237
780.227
790.217
800.205
810.194
820.184
830.173
840.164
850.156
860.146
870.136
880.129
890.120
900.110
910.101
920.092
930.082
940.070
950.062
960.054
970.042
980.033
990.024


About the historical and exceedance probablity product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ


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