Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Historical and exceedance probability for Diglum Creek at Marlua


Return to catchment list
Product list for Diglum Creek at Marlua


Download forecast data
Historical and exceedance probability for Diglum Creek at Marlua( )

Historical Observations
Average (1970+) (GL)Last year (2011) (GL)Observed (2012) (GL)Minimum (2001) (GL)10 yr average (2002+) (GL)Maximum (1996) (GL)
Sep0.5020.573NA0.0420.4376.380
Sep-Oct1.0261.019NA0.0560.66211.361
Sep-Nov1.9921.253NA0.0600.80211.885

Notes:

  • The minimum and maximum are determined from the total for the 3 month period.

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)		Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
104.976
202.729
301.796
401.204
500.844
600.574
700.398
800.259
900.142

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)		Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
114.881
211.323
39.979
48.929
58.153
67.172
76.513
85.922
95.369
104.976
114.664
124.337
134.098
143.865
153.622
163.439
173.229
183.026
192.857
202.729
212.610
222.476
232.393
242.268
252.194
262.131
272.035
281.962
291.883
301.796
311.720
321.643
331.585
341.532
351.457
361.401
371.345
381.296
391.255
401.204
411.155
421.121
431.091
441.053
451.019
460.982
470.950
480.908
490.877
500.844
510.816
520.788
530.755
540.727
550.696
560.662
570.642
580.622
590.602
600.574
610.548
620.530
630.512
640.492
650.477
660.461
670.447
680.429
690.411
700.398
710.381
720.367
730.352
740.338
750.324
760.311
770.298
780.285
790.274
800.259
810.246
820.234
830.220
840.209
850.200
860.187
870.175
880.165
890.154
900.142
910.131
920.119
930.107
940.092
950.082
960.072
970.057
980.045
990.033


About the historical and exceedance probablity product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ


Creative Commons By Attribution logo
Unless otherwise noted, all material on this page is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution Australia Licence