Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Historical and exceedance probability for Diglum Creek at Marlua


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Product list for Diglum Creek at Marlua


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Historical and exceedance probability for Diglum Creek at Marlua( )

Historical Observations
Average (1970+) (GL)Last year (2011) (GL)Observed (2012) (GL)Minimum (2004) (GL)10 yr average (2002+) (GL)Maximum (2010) (GL)
Oct0.5240.445NA0.0380.2260.565
Oct-Nov1.4900.680NA0.0850.3650.968
Oct-Dec6.6760.924NA0.11515.13083.624

Notes:

  • The minimum and maximum are determined from the total for the 3 month period.

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)		Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1012.368
206.525
304.276
402.876
502.028
601.388
700.970
800.638
900.354

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)		Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
160.287
236.826
330.184
425.647
522.618
619.118
716.953
815.119
913.485
1012.368
1111.507
1210.624
139.989
149.380
158.754
168.289
177.762
187.256
196.838
206.525
216.232
225.907
235.706
245.405
255.228
265.077
274.848
284.673
294.485
304.276
314.097
323.914
333.777
343.652
353.473
363.342
373.210
383.093
392.997
402.876
412.761
422.680
432.611
442.521
452.441
462.352
472.277
482.178
492.104
502.028
511.961
521.896
531.818
541.750
551.677
561.598
571.551
581.503
591.454
601.388
611.327
621.284
631.243
641.195
651.158
661.121
671.087
681.044
691.000
700.970
710.929
720.896
730.860
740.828
750.793
760.762
770.730
780.700
790.673
800.638
810.606
820.576
830.543
840.516
850.494
860.464
870.434
880.411
890.384
900.354
910.328
920.298
930.267
940.232
950.207
960.181
970.144
980.115
990.084


About the historical and exceedance probablity product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ


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