Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Historical and exceedance probability for Diglum Creek at Marlua


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Product list for Diglum Creek at Marlua


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Historical and exceedance probability for Diglum Creek at Marlua( )

Historical Observations
Average (1970+) (GL)Last year (2011) (GL)Observed (2012) (GL)Minimum (2004) (GL)10 yr average (2002+) (GL)Maximum (1970) (GL)
Dec5.1860.244NA0.03014.7653.499
Dec-Jan11.89711.972NA0.04920.65243.757
Dec-Feb17.81317.381NA0.08031.633105.240

Notes:

  • The minimum and maximum are determined from the total for the 3 month period.

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)		Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1054.309
2026.844
3015.618
409.171
505.700
603.389
702.071
801.165
900.519

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)		Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1148.793
2117.918
3105.860
495.877
588.151
678.484
771.529
865.066
958.877
1054.309
1150.630
1246.743
1343.835
1440.836
1537.922
1635.684
1732.938
1830.477
1928.410
2026.844
2125.327
2223.622
2322.686
2421.192
2520.302
2619.550
2718.412
2817.548
2916.629
3015.618
3114.754
3213.883
3313.241
3412.657
3511.834
3611.234
3710.641
3810.122
399.699
409.171
418.680
428.335
438.044
447.668
457.340
466.977
476.674
486.283
495.994
505.700
515.441
525.196
534.906
544.657
554.392
564.112
573.946
583.782
593.613
603.389
613.188
623.045
632.912
642.760
652.644
662.528
672.424
682.292
692.162
702.071
711.952
721.860
731.756
741.666
751.571
761.488
771.402
781.325
791.254
801.165
811.086
821.013
830.934
840.872
850.819
860.752
870.687
880.637
890.579
900.519
910.467
920.409
930.353
940.290
950.249
960.206
970.151
980.111
990.072


About the historical and exceedance probablity product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ


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