Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Exceedance probability for Brisbane River at Gregors Creek


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Product list for Brisbane River at Gregors Creek


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Exceedance probability for Brisbane River at Gregors Creek( Sep 2014 )

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1024.34058.374
2012.95525.524
308.05114.199
405.0978.047
503.3694.820
602.1802.704
701.2601.497
800.5010.680
900.0000.103

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
199.875215.693
270.943160.403
356.607139.248
447.473122.294
541.821110.103
636.26093.852
731.60383.050
828.84973.517
926.48664.619
1024.34058.374
1122.47653.491
1220.93748.423
1319.43344.806
1418.29041.378
1517.17537.835
1616.16235.187
1715.30732.276
1814.38329.504
1913.60427.222
2012.95525.524
2112.29023.964
2211.55522.318
2311.08921.222
2410.55019.701
2510.12618.794
269.65718.040
279.24416.938
288.84516.102
298.45615.172
308.05114.199
317.65013.353
327.29112.535
337.01911.918
346.71111.334
356.37710.569
366.0989.987
375.8649.431
385.6268.935
395.3748.543
405.0978.047
414.8667.589
424.6877.263
434.4666.997
444.2966.643
454.1476.336
463.9866.005
473.8335.717
483.6815.355
493.5115.093
503.3694.820
513.2424.582
523.1004.351
532.9834.093
542.8293.855
552.7083.625
562.6033.358
572.5023.207
582.3953.059
592.2992.902
602.1802.704
612.0682.515
621.9542.383
631.8682.264
641.7742.122
651.6672.016
661.5881.911
671.4921.816
681.4071.697
691.3391.579
701.2601.497
711.1641.389
721.0671.306
731.0001.212
740.9161.131
750.8331.045
760.7690.971
770.7070.893
780.6420.824
790.5650.760
800.5010.680
810.4350.609
820.3830.544
830.3290.473
840.2810.417
850.2310.371
860.1790.311
870.1280.252
880.0810.207
890.0170.157
900.0000.103
910.0000.057
920.0000.006
930.0000.000
940.0000.000
950.0000.000
960.0000.000
970.0000.000
980.0000.000
990.0000.000


About the exceedance probability product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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