Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Exceedance probability for Brisbane River at Gregors Creek


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Product list for Brisbane River at Gregors Creek


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Exceedance probability for Brisbane River at Gregors Creek(  )

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
10342.480
20146.798
3083.179
4048.535
5030.122
6017.851
7010.732
805.821
902.267

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
11824.455
21208.698
3993.695
4833.540
5725.993
6593.066
7511.283
8443.259
9383.034
10342.480
11311.672
12280.457
13258.610
14238.204
15217.389
16202.000
17185.223
18169.379
19156.410
20146.798
21137.994
22128.726
23122.563
24114.027
25108.936
26104.707
2798.531
2893.846
2988.635
3083.179
3178.433
3273.843
3370.375
3467.088
3562.781
3659.500
3756.365
3853.561
3951.341
4048.535
4145.938
4244.085
4342.569
4440.554
4538.805
4636.917
4735.266
4833.195
4931.690
5030.122
5128.749
5227.422
5325.928
5424.556
5523.218
5621.669
5720.789
5819.926
5919.009
6017.851
6116.746
6215.970
6315.269
6414.437
6513.811
6613.190
6712.628
6811.920
6911.219
7010.732
7110.089
729.592
739.029
748.544
758.025
767.579
777.110
786.692
796.306
805.821
815.385
824.988
834.557
844.212
853.925
863.556
873.194
882.916
892.599
902.267
911.975
921.653
931.335
940.983
950.753
960.510
970.198
980.000
990.000


About the exceedance probability product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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