Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Exceedance probability for Brisbane River at Gregors Creek


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Product list for Brisbane River at Gregors Creek



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Exceedance probability for Brisbane River at Gregors Creek ( May 2014 )

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1085.319136.731
2045.58856.155
3028.92830.506
4018.75717.042
5012.44910.149
608.3265.724
705.4603.253
802.9811.616
901.2030.489

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1277.298619.588
2215.809440.219
3183.244372.933
4154.339320.069
5135.065282.877
6119.115234.690
7109.094203.722
898.750177.193
992.154153.163
1085.319136.731
1179.517124.136
1274.060111.299
1369.297102.282
1465.71793.846
1562.41385.235
1658.62678.872
1755.20671.945
1850.76965.418
1948.12760.091
2045.58856.155
2143.69452.560
2241.88248.788
2339.78046.288
2437.73242.836
2535.85440.785
2634.40239.085
2733.02436.611
2831.77934.741
2930.36832.667
3028.92830.506
3127.53428.633
3226.45626.829
3325.28825.471
3423.99924.189
3522.83122.515
3622.02021.246
3721.00320.037
3820.13218.961
3919.55118.111
4018.75717.042
4118.09516.055
4217.34815.354
4316.64314.783
4416.13114.025
4515.53813.369
4614.93412.664
4714.24412.050
4813.73411.282
4913.10810.726
5012.44910.149
5112.0739.646
5211.6159.162
5311.1678.618
5410.7098.121
5510.3067.638
569.8317.082
579.4246.767
589.0456.460
598.7146.134
608.3265.724
618.0255.335
627.7125.063
637.4264.817
647.2114.528
656.8574.310
666.6074.096
676.3243.902
686.0663.659
695.7443.419
705.4603.253
715.2053.035
724.9452.867
734.7162.678
744.4032.515
754.2222.342
763.9562.194
773.7072.038
783.4751.901
793.2441.774
802.9811.616
812.7531.474
822.5151.346
832.3451.208
842.1701.098
852.0001.006
861.8180.890
871.6840.776
881.5040.690
891.3390.591
901.2030.489
911.0510.400
920.8900.303
930.6660.208
940.5210.104
950.3840.037
960.2190.000
970.0470.000
980.0000.000
990.0000.000


About the exceedance probability product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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