Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Exceedance probability for Brisbane River at Gregors Creek


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Product list for Brisbane River at Gregors Creek



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Exceedance probability for Brisbane River at Gregors Creek ( Jun 2014 )

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1036.504108.736
2019.23143.489
3011.79223.165
407.19712.687
504.7257.412
603.0344.078
701.7922.247
800.8581.054
900.1140.250

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1160.065500.293
2112.363355.840
389.846301.399
476.546258.479
566.049228.196
657.113188.857
750.536163.527
844.617141.817
940.762122.161
1036.504108.736
1133.64798.461
1231.78188.008
1329.75080.681
1427.86173.838
1525.80666.869
1624.30661.731
1722.56056.151
1821.22450.906
1920.18646.637
2019.23143.489
2118.12540.620
2217.15037.615
2316.28735.628
2415.49632.889
2514.77531.265
2614.06329.921
2713.49527.967
2812.75926.493
2912.21224.862
3011.79223.165
3111.26021.697
3210.66220.286
3310.09019.226
349.73418.227
359.36416.924
368.86515.938
378.48715.002
387.94414.169
397.54813.512
407.19712.687
416.89711.928
426.59411.389
436.25910.950
446.04110.368
455.8009.866
465.5129.327
475.3088.858
485.1178.273
494.9197.851
504.7257.412
514.5697.031
524.3736.664
534.1906.253
544.0045.877
553.7845.514
563.6175.095
573.4594.859
583.2984.629
593.1714.385
603.0344.078
612.9033.788
622.7763.586
632.6263.403
642.5103.188
652.3973.027
662.2602.869
672.1612.725
682.0192.546
691.8962.369
701.7922.247
711.6782.087
721.5871.964
731.4911.825
741.3991.707
751.2791.581
761.1961.473
771.1091.360
781.0151.260
790.9381.168
800.8581.054
810.7970.952
820.7190.860
830.6210.761
840.5350.682
850.4550.617
860.3740.533
870.3080.453
880.2430.391
890.1810.322
900.1140.250
910.0480.188
920.0000.120
930.0000.053
940.0000.000
950.0000.000
960.0000.000
970.0000.000
980.0000.000
990.0000.000


About the exceedance probability product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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