Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Probability distribution for Brisbane River at Gregors Creek


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Product list for Brisbane River at Gregors Creek


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Probability distribution for Brisbane River at Gregors Creek(  )

Basic Statistics
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
25% Quartile2.897
Median10.368
Mean36.148
75% Quartile33.295
Interquartile Range30.399

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1412.222
2281.472
3235.815
4201.559
5178.319
6149.169
7130.903
8115.453
9101.531
1092.002
1184.667
1277.139
1371.807
1466.774
1561.582
1657.703
1753.432
1849.352
1945.978
2043.454
2141.124
2238.652
2336.995
2434.684
2533.296
2632.137
2730.433
2829.133
2927.676
3026.141
3124.795
3223.484
3322.488
3421.537
3520.284
3619.322
3718.397
3817.565
3916.902
4016.060
4115.275
4214.712
4314.249
4413.631
4513.092
4612.506
4711.991
4811.342
4910.866
5010.368
519.930
529.504
539.021
548.576
558.138
567.628
577.336
587.049
596.742
606.352
615.977
625.712
635.471
645.184
654.966
664.750
674.553
684.303
694.054
703.880
713.649
723.470
733.265
743.088
752.897
762.731
772.556
782.399
792.254
802.069
811.901
821.748
831.580
841.444
851.330
861.182
871.036
880.923
890.792
900.654
910.530
920.393
930.254
940.098
950.000
960.000
970.000
980.000
990.000


About the probability distribution product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. The 25% quartile, also defined as the first quartile cuts off the lowest 25% of data. The 75% quartile, also defined as the third quartile cuts off the lowest 75%. The interquartile range, also called the middle fifty, is a measure of statistical dispersion, being equal to the difference between the third and first quartiles.
  9. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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