Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Probability distribution for Brisbane River at Gregors Creek


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Product list for Brisbane River at Gregors Creek


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Probability distribution for Brisbane River at Gregors Creek(  )

Basic Statistics
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
25% Quartile6.834
Median28.972
Mean139.671
75% Quartile117.253
Interquartile Range110.418

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
11582.538
21157.814
3995.720
4866.281
5773.652
6651.078
7570.421
8499.964
9434.969
10389.860
11354.923
12318.999
13293.584
14269.679
15245.163
16226.978
17207.119
18188.358
19173.015
20161.663
21151.286
22140.389
23133.163
24123.186
25117.256
26112.342
27105.188
2899.781
2993.788
3087.541
3182.131
3276.923
3373.005
3469.305
3564.479
3660.822
3757.341
3854.243
3951.800
4048.725
4145.891
4243.879
4342.238
4440.064
4538.185
4636.165
4734.405
4832.210
4930.621
5028.972
5127.536
5226.153
5324.603
5423.187
5521.813
5620.230
5719.336
5818.462
5917.537
6016.375
6115.272
6214.502
6313.808
6412.988
6512.375
6611.769
6711.222
6810.536
699.861
709.394
718.780
728.308
737.775
747.319
756.834
766.418
775.983
785.599
795.245
804.802
814.407
824.050
833.665
843.359
853.106
862.781
872.467
882.227
891.956
901.674
911.429
921.161
930.900
940.615
950.432
960.242
970.003
980.000
990.000


About the probability distribution product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. The 25% quartile, also defined as the first quartile cuts off the lowest 25% of data. The 75% quartile, also defined as the third quartile cuts off the lowest 75%. The interquartile range, also called the middle fifty, is a measure of statistical dispersion, being equal to the difference between the third and first quartiles.
  9. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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