Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Probability distribution for Brisbane River at Gregors Creek


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Product list for Brisbane River at Gregors Creek


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Probability distribution for Brisbane River at Gregors Creek(  )

Basic Statistics
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
25% Quartile15.1132.309
Median51.54810.874
Mean109.01859.029
75% Quartile152.12147.847
Interquartile Range137.00845.538

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1601.207675.398
2527.363498.559
3469.677430.487
4429.200375.700
5405.296336.175
6374.127283.358
7351.051248.235
8333.810217.301
9316.713188.567
10297.641168.531
11283.297152.975
12270.206136.960
13259.440125.628
14246.879114.975
15234.634104.065
16223.23095.988
17215.29887.188
18206.74578.901
19197.90572.147
20190.59967.166
21182.58562.626
22174.38957.874
23167.21954.733
24159.01650.409
25152.12847.848
26145.99245.731
27140.04742.657
28135.61640.341
29129.84437.783
30124.09235.125
31119.30532.832
32113.65530.632
33109.31428.982
34105.40327.429
3599.90525.410
3695.56123.886
3790.30822.440
3886.43321.157
3983.57820.149
4079.87918.882
4176.23417.720
4273.50916.897
4369.98616.227
4467.75315.343
4564.26714.580
4662.03813.763
4760.15613.053
4857.50112.170
4954.63511.533
5051.54810.874
5149.20410.302
5247.3369.753
5345.1189.139
5443.3518.580
5541.1968.040
5639.6507.420
5738.0357.070
5836.0536.730
5934.2506.371
6032.8225.921
6131.7065.495
6230.1865.199
6328.4004.933
6426.9604.620
6525.7334.386
6624.5154.156
6723.3663.949
6822.1523.690
6921.1713.436
7019.9403.260
7118.4663.031
7217.5812.854
7316.7532.657
7415.9722.488
7515.1092.308
7614.2642.155
7713.4421.996
7812.5961.856
7911.7481.727
8011.0361.566
8110.1901.424
829.4201.295
838.6341.158
847.9461.049
857.0890.959
866.4580.844
875.8240.734
885.1890.650
894.7270.556
904.2250.458
913.7770.374
923.3570.283
932.7790.195
942.2390.100
951.7560.039
961.2660.000
970.8320.000
980.3630.000
990.0000.000


About the probability distribution product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. The 25% quartile, also defined as the first quartile cuts off the lowest 25% of data. The 75% quartile, also defined as the third quartile cuts off the lowest 75%. The interquartile range, also called the middle fifty, is a measure of statistical dispersion, being equal to the difference between the third and first quartiles.
  9. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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