Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Probability distribution for Brisbane River at Gregors Creek


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Product list for Brisbane River at Gregors Creek


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Probability distribution for Brisbane River at Gregors Creek(  )

Basic Statistics
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
25% Quartile1.8881.058
Median5.3454.585
Mean11.60817.239
75% Quartile13.55316.601
Interquartile Range11.66515.543

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
192.498174.355
266.888129.581
357.621112.562
448.21498.990
543.94489.275
639.45376.382
736.57167.846
833.94060.327
931.79053.315
1030.01248.389
1127.73644.533
1225.93040.521
1324.11037.651
1422.98934.922
1521.82032.093
1620.57729.970
1719.63127.627
1818.82725.387
1917.94423.533
2016.94222.148
2116.17120.872
2215.47719.519
2314.74818.615
2414.14217.356
2513.56516.602
2613.02315.973
2712.65315.052
2812.13914.351
2911.49913.569
3011.02512.747
3110.65812.029
3210.30411.333
339.96510.806
349.58510.304
359.1839.646
368.8829.143
378.5048.662
388.1598.230
397.7667.888
407.5107.455
417.2977.052
427.0636.765
436.7976.530
446.5506.216
456.3085.944
466.1295.649
475.9275.391
485.7185.067
495.5204.831
505.3454.585
515.1194.369
524.9594.160
534.7633.924
544.5953.707
554.4313.495
564.2543.250
574.1053.110
583.9442.973
593.8112.826
603.6592.642
613.5282.465
623.3862.341
633.2222.229
643.0762.095
652.9681.995
662.8501.895
672.7341.804
682.6361.690
692.5241.577
702.4341.498
712.3171.394
722.2171.313
732.1071.221
741.9961.142
751.8861.058
761.7840.985
771.6950.908
781.5940.840
791.5040.777
801.4090.697
811.3160.625
821.2020.560
831.1050.488
841.0190.431
850.9370.384
860.8370.322
870.7430.262
880.6690.216
890.5870.163
900.5030.107
910.4190.058
920.3170.003
930.2360.000
940.1510.000
950.0590.000
960.0000.000
970.0000.000
980.0000.000
990.0000.000


About the probability distribution product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. The 25% quartile, also defined as the first quartile cuts off the lowest 25% of data. The 75% quartile, also defined as the third quartile cuts off the lowest 75%. The interquartile range, also called the middle fifty, is a measure of statistical dispersion, being equal to the difference between the third and first quartiles.
  9. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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