Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Probability distribution for Brisbane River at Gregors Creek


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Product list for Brisbane River at Gregors Creek


  • Jan

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Probability distribution for Brisbane River at Gregors Creek ( Jan 2014 )

Basic Statistics
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
25% Quartile8.472
Median33.725
Mean155.506
75% Quartile131.644
Interquartile Range123.172

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
11762.333
21282.069
31099.688
4954.691
5851.391
6715.418
7626.447
8549.067
9477.949
10428.723
11390.658
12351.559
13323.913
14297.913
15271.247
16251.459
17229.839
18209.395
19192.660
20180.266
21168.925
22157.005
23149.093
24138.155
25131.647
26126.251
27118.386
28112.436
29105.834
3098.944
3192.970
3287.211
3382.874
3478.774
3573.420
3669.357
3765.486
3862.036
3959.314
4055.882
4152.717
4250.466
4348.630
4446.194
4544.087
4641.820
4739.843
4837.372
4935.583
5033.725
5132.103
5230.541
5328.787
5427.183
5525.626
5623.829
5722.812
5821.818
5920.764
6019.439
6118.180
6217.299
6316.504
6415.566
6514.862
6614.167
6713.538
6812.749
6911.972
7011.433
7110.724
7210.179
739.563
749.034
758.471
767.988
777.483
787.035
796.623
806.106
815.644
825.226
834.774
844.415
854.117
863.735
873.363
883.080
892.758
902.423
912.131
921.811
931.499
941.156
950.935
960.705
970.414
980.204
990.004


About the probability distribution product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. The 25% quartile, also defined as the first quartile cuts off the lowest 25% of data. The 75% quartile, also defined as the third quartile cuts off the lowest 75%. The interquartile range, also called the middle fifty, is a measure of statistical dispersion, being equal to the difference between the third and first quartiles.
  9. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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