Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Historical and exceedance probability for Brisbane River at Gregors Creek


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Product list for Brisbane River at Gregors Creek


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Historical and exceedance probability for Brisbane River at Gregors Creek( Jul 2014 )

Historical Observations
Average (1889+) (GL)Last year (2013) (GL)Minimum (2006) (GL)10 yr average (2004+) (GL)Maximum (1889) (GL)
Jul17.0562.6660.0005.905482.953
Jul-Aug22.6454.1890.0008.764516.542
Jul-Sep26.7755.2980.00014.391531.545

Notes:

  • The minimum and maximum are determined from the total for the 3 month period.

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
107.96668.205
204.28928.971
302.65616.292
401.7269.378
501.0695.694
600.6583.232
700.3051.800
800.0370.809
900.0000.089

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
134.741407.746
224.659257.121
318.616207.379
414.992171.562
513.069148.125
611.341119.822
710.203102.749
89.45088.725
98.59676.429
107.96668.205
117.45061.984
126.95455.702
136.44851.316
146.11247.226
155.74843.061
165.42239.985
175.04736.635
184.75433.474
194.50230.887
204.28928.971
214.07527.216
223.87125.369
233.69124.141
243.56922.440
253.38521.426
263.25420.583
273.10519.352
282.93418.418
292.77617.379
302.65616.292
312.53715.345
322.43414.430
332.32813.738
342.22913.082
352.12712.223
362.03011.568
371.96910.942
381.88710.382
391.8049.938
401.7269.378
411.6278.859
421.5538.488
431.4898.185
441.4097.782
451.3347.432
461.2837.054
471.2296.724
481.1796.309
491.1246.008
501.0695.694
511.0305.419
520.9955.153
530.9484.853
540.9114.578
550.8674.310
560.8223.999
570.7763.822
580.7343.649
590.6893.465
600.6583.232
610.6223.010
620.5842.854
630.5422.713
640.4972.546
650.4612.420
660.4192.295
670.3842.182
680.3592.039
690.3341.898
700.3051.800
710.2801.671
720.2561.570
730.2251.457
740.1941.359
750.1631.254
760.1341.164
770.1131.070
780.0840.985
790.0630.907
800.0370.809
810.0120.721
820.0000.641
830.0000.553
840.0000.484
850.0000.426
860.0000.351
870.0000.277
880.0000.221
890.0000.157
900.0000.089
910.0000.030
920.0000.000
930.0000.000
940.0000.000
950.0000.000
960.0000.000
970.0000.000
980.0000.000
990.0000.000


About the historical and exceedance probablity product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ


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