Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Historical and exceedance probability for Brisbane River at Gregors Creek


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Product list for Brisbane River at Gregors Creek


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Historical and exceedance probability for Brisbane River at Gregors Creek( Aug 2014 )

Historical Observations
Average (1889+) (GL)Last year (2013) (GL)Minimum (2006) (GL)10 yr average (2004+) (GL)Maximum (2010) (GL)
Aug5.5891.5230.0002.8594.327
Aug-Sep9.7192.6310.0008.48645.176
Aug-Oct15.6043.3850.00028.656237.931

Notes:

  • The minimum and maximum are determined from the total for the 3 month period.

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1011.08248.389
206.00422.148
303.76812.747
402.4467.455
501.5874.585
600.9752.642
700.5091.498
800.1390.697
900.0000.107

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
148.075174.355
230.395129.581
324.916112.562
420.02198.990
517.57689.275
615.66576.382
714.38967.846
812.92460.327
912.06453.315
1011.08248.389
1110.15944.533
129.48540.521
138.88537.651
148.44234.922
158.00032.093
167.49329.970
177.09427.627
186.73225.387
196.39623.533
206.00422.148
215.75120.872
225.44119.519
235.15718.615
244.90617.356
254.71316.602
264.46215.973
274.28515.052
284.10814.351
293.95013.569
303.76812.747
313.62112.029
323.48511.333
333.35210.806
343.19910.304
353.0739.646
362.9309.143
372.7898.662
382.6648.230
392.5497.888
402.4467.455
412.3547.052
422.2676.765
432.1706.530
442.0886.216
451.9835.944
461.9115.649
471.8375.391
481.7485.067
491.6514.831
501.5874.585
511.5104.369
521.4554.160
531.3723.924
541.3043.707
551.2483.495
561.1903.250
571.1453.110
581.0842.973
591.0342.826
600.9752.642
610.9252.465
620.8762.341
630.8122.229
640.7632.095
650.7121.995
660.6631.895
670.6281.804
680.5911.690
690.5481.577
700.5091.498
710.4741.394
720.4351.313
730.3941.221
740.3621.142
750.3241.058
760.2890.985
770.2600.908
780.2140.840
790.1770.777
800.1390.697
810.1090.625
820.0810.560
830.0550.488
840.0270.431
850.0000.384
860.0000.322
870.0000.262
880.0000.216
890.0000.163
900.0000.107
910.0000.058
920.0000.003
930.0000.000
940.0000.000
950.0000.000
960.0000.000
970.0000.000
980.0000.000
990.0000.000


About the historical and exceedance probablity product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ


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