Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Historical and exceedance probability for Brisbane River at Gregors Creek


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Product list for Brisbane River at Gregors Creek


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Historical and exceedance probability for Brisbane River at Gregors Creek( Apr 2014 )

Historical Observations
Average (1889+) (GL)Last year (2013) (GL)Minimum (2007) (GL)10 yr average (2004+) (GL)Maximum (1983) (GL)
Apr22.25311.9060.0005.20827.699
Apr-May37.19916.7180.0009.070252.655
Apr-Jun55.31521.1600.00014.945689.249

Notes:

  • The minimum and maximum are determined from the total for the 3 month period.

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1078.314168.531
2036.44867.166
3020.29735.125
4011.94218.882
507.26310.874
604.3735.921
702.3973.260
801.0361.566
900.0700.458

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1315.314675.398
2234.683498.559
3188.940430.487
4166.413375.700
5144.112336.175
6125.631283.358
7109.441248.235
895.310217.301
986.651188.567
1078.314168.531
1170.632152.975
1264.303136.960
1360.645125.628
1455.762114.975
1551.868104.065
1648.61695.988
1745.14487.188
1842.05878.901
1939.27772.147
2036.44867.166
2134.65362.626
2232.42557.874
2330.73654.733
2428.41550.409
2526.82147.848
2625.58945.731
2724.33642.657
2822.71940.341
2921.40137.783
3020.29735.125
3119.33232.832
3218.56230.632
3317.44928.982
3416.56927.429
3515.78725.410
3614.97923.886
3714.23522.440
3813.32021.157
3912.71520.149
4011.94218.882
4111.35617.720
4210.88916.897
4310.41316.227
449.98415.343
459.50514.580
468.98213.763
478.50113.053
488.05412.170
497.65911.533
507.26310.874
516.92810.302
526.6079.753
536.3009.139
545.9578.580
555.6348.040
565.2587.420
575.0137.070
584.8056.730
594.6086.371
604.3735.921
614.1125.495
623.8465.199
633.6384.933
643.4404.620
653.2424.386
663.0454.156
672.8963.949
682.7533.690
692.6013.436
702.3973.260
712.2403.031
722.0652.854
731.9052.657
741.8092.488
751.6942.308
761.5672.155
771.4061.996
781.2761.856
791.1551.727
801.0361.566
810.9171.424
820.8261.295
830.7021.158
840.5991.049
850.5140.959
860.3990.844
870.3090.734
880.2230.650
890.1440.556
900.0700.458
910.0000.374
920.0000.283
930.0000.195
940.0000.100
950.0000.039
960.0000.000
970.0000.000
980.0000.000
990.0000.000


About the historical and exceedance probablity product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ


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