Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Historical and exceedance probability for Brisbane River at Gregors Creek


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Product list for Brisbane River at Gregors Creek


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Historical and exceedance probability for Brisbane River at Gregors Creek(  )

Historical Observations
Average (1889+) (GL)Last year (2011) (GL)Observed (2012) (GL)Minimum (2006) (GL)10 yr average (2002+) (GL)Maximum (2010) (GL)
Sep4.1535.9064.2730.0005.09540.849
Sep-Oct10.10610.8987.0150.00024.916233.604
Sep-Nov18.56413.5379.9700.00027.740242.884

Notes:

  • The minimum and maximum are determined from the total for the 3 month period.

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1085.16058.374
2049.79225.524
3033.96014.199
4022.4408.047
5015.5164.820
6010.8032.704
707.1301.497
804.1960.680
901.8270.103

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1226.215215.693
2181.094160.403
3157.198139.248
4140.319122.294
5126.534110.103
6115.58693.852
7105.82983.050
897.40573.517
990.60864.619
1085.16058.374
1180.52853.491
1275.48648.423
1371.79644.806
1467.93241.378
1564.49737.835
1661.64835.187
1758.85832.276
1855.58529.504
1952.45927.222
2049.79225.524
2147.98323.964
2245.65722.318
2344.47821.222
2443.06719.701
2541.75518.794
2640.07818.040
2738.51716.938
2837.00316.102
2935.57115.172
3033.96014.199
3132.55513.353
3231.35512.535
3329.99211.918
3428.44811.334
3527.31610.569
3626.3789.987
3725.5329.431
3824.3428.935
3923.2948.543
4022.4408.047
4121.6947.589
4220.8287.263
4320.0116.997
4419.2626.643
4518.6206.336
4617.9276.005
4717.3095.717
4816.7305.355
4916.1425.093
5015.5164.820
5114.9484.582
5214.4334.351
5313.9804.093
5413.4253.855
5513.0653.625
5612.6123.358
5712.0593.207
5811.5793.059
5911.1572.902
6010.8032.704
6110.3702.515
6210.0472.383
639.6942.264
649.2542.122
658.9102.016
668.4981.911
678.1271.816
687.8361.697
697.5461.579
707.1301.497
716.8031.389
726.5131.306
736.1681.212
745.9251.131
755.6051.045
765.2760.971
775.0180.893
784.7340.824
794.4840.760
804.1960.680
813.9530.609
823.6390.544
833.4030.473
843.1500.417
852.9250.371
862.7000.311
872.4820.252
882.2580.207
892.0580.157
901.8270.103
911.6160.057
921.3570.006
931.1850.000
940.9860.000
950.7700.000
960.5490.000
970.3060.000
980.0640.000
990.0000.000


About the historical and exceedance probablity product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ


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