Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Historical and exceedance probability for Brisbane River at Gregors Creek


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Product list for Brisbane River at Gregors Creek


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Historical and exceedance probability for Brisbane River at Gregors Creek(  )

Historical Observations
Average (1889+) (GL)Last year (2011) (GL)Observed (2012) (GL)Minimum (2006) (GL)10 yr average (2002+) (GL)Maximum (2010) (GL)
Nov8.4582.6402.9560.0002.8249.280
Nov-Dec25.5497.0063.9460.00040.037362.029
Nov-Jan72.92645.188226.0490.000162.2251485.534

Notes:

  • The minimum and maximum are determined from the total for the 3 month period.

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
10105.220216.322
2051.49489.715
3030.54449.745
4018.91828.465
5012.10117.386
607.64410.147
704.6166.031
802.4743.251
900.9041.291

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1425.2891192.518
2308.332789.950
3245.915647.996
4204.428541.790
5179.024470.321
6157.239381.967
7138.821327.695
8125.934282.676
9114.412242.962
10105.220216.322
1196.330196.152
1289.607175.788
1382.771161.583
1476.659148.356
1571.199134.909
1665.327124.999
1761.319114.229
1857.708104.094
1954.14595.826
2051.49489.715
2148.72984.133
2245.60878.272
2343.21974.384
2441.28269.012
2539.28765.816
2637.53363.166
2735.39159.303
2833.80456.380
2932.00753.134
3030.54449.745
3128.88246.804
3227.43543.967
3325.81341.828
3425.04739.805
3523.66637.159
3622.61035.149
3721.50833.232
3820.61331.522
3919.59030.170
4018.91828.465
4118.17126.890
4217.23425.769
4316.46324.853
4415.73123.637
4515.06122.584
4614.53521.450
4713.90020.459
4813.17019.220
4912.62718.321
5012.10117.386
5111.62116.569
5211.14015.781
5310.55914.895
5410.10814.084
559.67013.295
569.24512.382
578.76411.866
588.36411.360
598.00510.823
607.64410.147
617.3489.503
627.0239.052
636.6378.645
646.3148.163
655.9857.801
665.7667.443
675.4917.119
685.2166.712
694.9196.310
704.6166.031
714.2975.664
724.0605.380
733.8375.060
743.6534.785
753.4484.491
763.2424.239
773.0483.974
782.8463.739
792.6543.523
802.4743.251
812.2593.007
822.0972.786
831.9542.547
841.7852.357
851.6192.198
861.4611.995
871.3081.796
881.1661.644
891.0451.472
900.9041.291
910.7871.134
920.6820.961
930.5720.791
940.4400.603
950.3040.482
960.1570.355
970.0460.193
980.0000.075
990.0000.000


About the historical and exceedance probablity product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ


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