Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Historical and exceedance probability for Brisbane River at Gregors Creek


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Product list for Brisbane River at Gregors Creek


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Historical and exceedance probability for Brisbane River at Gregors Creek(  )

Historical Observations
Average (1889+) (GL)Last year (2012) (GL)Observed (2013) (GL)Minimum (2007) (GL)10 yr average (2003+) (GL)Maximum (1955) (GL)
Mar40.17841.58194.5740.00029.978460.494
Mar-Apr62.51451.164106.4800.00034.081514.577
Mar-May77.54257.241111.2920.00037.657989.839

Notes:

  • The minimum and maximum are determined from the total for the 3 month period.

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
10239.695
20105.071
3057.876
4032.535
5019.461
6011.039
706.327
803.199
901.044

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1818.299
2620.879
3544.556
4482.778
5437.877
6377.167
7336.126
8299.349
9264.492
10239.695
11220.112
12199.609
13184.868
14170.819
15156.223
16145.272
17133.192
18121.664
19112.155
20105.071
2198.561
2291.691
2387.115
2480.772
2576.988
2673.845
2769.257
2865.779
2961.915
3057.876
3154.371
3250.987
3348.437
3446.025
3542.873
3640.479
3738.198
3836.164
3934.559
4032.535
4130.668
4229.340
4328.256
4426.819
4525.576
4624.238
4723.071
4821.614
4920.558
5019.461
5118.505
5217.583
5316.549
5415.603
5514.685
5613.625
5713.026
5812.440
5911.819
6011.039
6110.297
629.778
639.311
648.758
658.344
667.935
677.565
687.101
696.644
706.327
715.911
725.590
735.228
744.917
754.587
764.304
774.007
783.744
793.502
803.199
812.929
822.684
832.419
842.209
852.034
861.811
871.593
881.428
891.240
901.044
910.874
920.687
930.505
940.305
950.177
960.043
970.000
980.000
990.000


About the historical and exceedance probablity product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ


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