Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Historical and exceedance probability for Brisbane River at Gregors Creek


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Product list for Brisbane River at Gregors Creek


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Historical and exceedance probability for Brisbane River at Gregors Creek(  )

Historical Observations
Average (1889+) (GL)Last year (2012) (GL)Observed (2013) (GL)Minimum (2007) (GL)10 yr average (2003+) (GL)Maximum (1983) (GL)
May15.0286.0784.8120.0003.576224.956
May-Jun33.25438.8259.2540.0009.240661.550
May-Jul50.42677.21711.9200.00014.925707.827

Notes:

  • The minimum and maximum are determined from the total for the 3 month period.

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
10173.151136.731
2099.29556.155
3064.47730.506
4042.83817.042
5029.01410.149
6019.8665.724
7013.1693.253
807.6381.616
903.5290.489

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1427.650619.588
2349.104440.219
3309.674372.933
4277.635320.069
5249.287282.877
6225.946234.690
7207.295203.722
8194.021177.193
9182.811153.163
10173.151136.731
11162.348124.136
12152.812111.299
13144.563102.282
14137.50393.846
15129.89385.235
16123.33778.872
17116.77771.945
18111.13465.418
19104.16260.091
2099.29556.155
2194.99852.560
2290.65548.788
2386.64346.288
2483.10042.836
2579.53540.785
2677.25739.085
2774.21236.611
2870.75134.741
2966.97632.667
3064.47730.506
3161.83428.633
3259.20026.829
3356.69225.471
3454.22424.189
3551.83122.515
3649.91421.246
3747.35920.037
3845.56418.961
3944.28518.111
4042.83817.042
4141.32716.055
4239.83915.354
4338.69614.783
4437.37614.025
4535.59913.369
4634.09712.664
4732.78712.050
4831.53111.282
4930.36410.726
5029.01410.149
5128.1799.646
5227.0209.162
5326.0588.618
5425.0848.121
5524.2077.638
5623.2807.082
5722.2416.767
5821.4256.460
5920.6016.134
6019.8665.724
6119.1425.335
6218.4825.063
6317.5564.817
6417.0084.528
6516.3994.310
6615.7854.096
6715.0473.902
6814.5523.659
6913.8473.419
7013.1693.253
7112.4803.035
7211.8942.867
7311.4542.678
7410.9542.515
7510.3702.342
769.6842.194
779.1772.038
788.7191.901
798.2341.774
807.6381.616
817.0731.474
826.5871.346
836.1061.208
845.6841.098
855.3451.006
865.0190.890
874.6270.776
884.2010.690
893.8690.591
903.5290.489
913.2640.400
922.9250.303
932.4870.208
942.0700.104
951.6860.037
961.2970.000
970.9970.000
980.5590.000
990.1880.000


About the historical and exceedance probablity product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ


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