Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Historical and exceedance probability for Brisbane River at Gregors Creek


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Product list for Brisbane River at Gregors Creek


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Historical and exceedance probability for Brisbane River at Gregors Creek(  )

Historical Observations
Average (1889+) (GL)Last year (2012) (GL)Observed (2013) (GL)Minimum (2006) (GL)10 yr average (2003+) (GL)Maximum (1889) (GL)
Jun18.22632.7474.4420.0005.6653.204
Jun-Jul35.39871.1397.1080.00011.349486.157
Jun-Aug41.02080.8268.6310.00014.084519.745

Notes:

  • The minimum and maximum are determined from the total for the 3 month period.

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1097.447108.736
2051.66243.489
3032.86923.165
4021.11612.687
5013.9237.412
609.2994.078
705.9842.247
803.4231.054
901.3850.250

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1311.002500.293
2237.783355.840
3199.364301.399
4177.049258.479
5156.583228.196
6139.840188.857
7124.707163.527
8113.848141.817
9106.569122.161
1097.447108.736
1188.29698.461
1284.18688.008
1378.95580.681
1474.06573.838
1569.05566.869
1666.21561.731
1762.06956.151
1857.73950.906
1954.67846.637
2051.66243.489
2148.92340.620
2246.67537.615
2344.34735.628
2442.73332.889
2540.58131.265
2639.08229.921
2737.37327.967
2835.75526.493
2934.37824.862
3032.86923.165
3131.82321.697
3230.26920.286
3328.87419.226
3427.56718.227
3526.42816.924
3625.36015.938
3724.13415.002
3823.26414.169
3922.08413.512
4021.11612.687
4120.21411.928
4219.20011.389
4318.44910.950
4417.68610.368
4517.0009.866
4616.3629.327
4715.7258.858
4815.1218.273
4914.5237.851
5013.9237.412
5113.4317.031
5212.9036.664
5312.4996.253
5411.9285.877
5511.4585.514
5611.0685.095
5710.5324.859
5810.1334.629
599.7284.385
609.2994.078
618.9673.788
628.6103.586
638.2433.403
647.9263.188
657.5153.027
667.2212.869
676.9552.725
686.6212.546
696.3142.369
705.9842.247
715.6582.087
725.4341.964
735.2461.825
744.9461.707
754.6631.581
764.3851.473
774.0841.360
783.8581.260
793.6191.168
803.4231.054
813.2570.952
823.0250.860
832.8240.761
842.5850.682
852.3430.617
862.1640.533
871.9410.453
881.7280.391
891.5590.322
901.3850.250
911.2400.188
921.0400.120
930.8440.053
940.6990.000
950.5010.000
960.2840.000
970.1390.000
980.0000.000
990.0000.000


About the historical and exceedance probablity product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ


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