Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Historical and exceedance probability for Brisbane River at Gregors Creek


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Product list for Brisbane River at Gregors Creek


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Historical and exceedance probability for Brisbane River at Gregors Creek(  )

Historical Observations
Average (1889+) (GL)Last year (2012) (GL)Observed (2013) (GL)Minimum (2006) (GL)10 yr average (2003+) (GL)Maximum (1889) (GL)
Jul17.17238.3922.6660.0005.685482.953
Jul-Aug22.79448.0794.1890.0008.419516.542
Jul-Sep26.94852.3525.2980.00013.938531.545

Notes:

  • The minimum and maximum are determined from the total for the 3 month period.

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1046.10568.205
2026.19728.971
3017.15916.292
4011.8069.378
508.3035.694
605.9413.232
703.8841.800
802.3700.809
901.1110.089

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1151.990407.746
2112.229257.121
392.966207.379
480.520171.562
570.367148.125
663.069119.822
758.144102.749
853.24388.725
949.48076.429
1046.10568.205
1143.32761.984
1240.65355.702
1338.00651.316
1436.15547.226
1533.70443.061
1631.89739.985
1730.14536.635
1828.60133.474
1927.30130.887
2026.19728.971
2125.16127.216
2224.04825.369
2323.12824.141
2422.05222.440
2521.29321.426
2620.30720.583
2719.37719.352
2818.61818.418
2917.82717.379
3017.15916.292
3116.52515.345
3216.00614.430
3315.40613.738
3414.98813.082
3514.30012.223
3613.68311.568
3713.10510.942
3812.73310.382
3912.2579.938
4011.8069.378
4111.3318.859
4210.8848.488
4310.5578.185
4410.1397.782
459.8667.432
469.5357.054
479.1806.724
488.8926.309
498.5316.008
508.3035.694
518.0475.419
527.8115.153
537.5844.853
547.3074.578
557.0614.310
566.8063.999
576.5713.822
586.3483.649
596.1683.465
605.9413.232
615.6983.010
625.4712.854
635.2292.713
645.0092.546
654.8282.420
664.6692.295
674.4572.182
684.2482.039
694.0541.898
703.8841.800
713.7101.671
723.5731.570
733.4191.457
743.2821.359
753.0911.254
762.9381.164
772.8161.070
782.6690.985
792.5060.907
802.3700.809
812.2180.721
822.0960.641
831.9620.553
841.8320.484
851.6970.426
861.5670.351
871.4610.277
881.3500.221
891.2310.157
901.1110.089
911.0180.030
920.8900.000
930.7800.000
940.6360.000
950.4880.000
960.3320.000
970.2090.000
980.0710.000
990.0000.000


About the historical and exceedance probablity product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ


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