Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Historical and exceedance probability for Brisbane River at Gregors Creek


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Product list for Brisbane River at Gregors Creek


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Historical and exceedance probability for Brisbane River at Gregors Creek(  )

Historical Observations
Average (1889+) (GL)Last year (2012) (GL)Observed (2013) (GL)Minimum (2006) (GL)10 yr average (2003+) (GL)Maximum (2010) (GL)
Sep4.1544.2731.1080.0005.51940.849
Sep-Oct10.0817.0151.8620.00025.614233.604
Sep-Nov18.4949.9704.2010.00028.734242.884

Notes:

  • The minimum and maximum are determined from the total for the 3 month period.

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1039.04658.374
2021.27025.524
3013.83014.199
408.9178.047
506.0624.820
604.0572.704
702.5701.497
801.2830.680
900.3610.103

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1137.821215.693
2102.315160.403
386.807139.248
474.462122.294
565.912110.103
658.26593.852
751.14783.050
846.68173.517
942.52464.619
1039.04658.374
1136.63353.491
1234.46148.423
1332.01244.806
1430.27641.378
1528.41337.835
1626.91135.187
1725.47732.276
1824.03629.504
1922.78427.222
2021.27025.524
2120.36023.964
2219.33322.318
2318.56921.222
2417.74019.701
2517.06318.794
2616.37318.040
2715.71316.938
2815.20416.102
2914.59515.172
3013.83014.199
3113.18813.353
3212.61612.535
3312.05911.918
3411.55011.334
3511.02510.569
3610.5919.987
3710.1549.431
389.7238.935
399.3558.543
408.9178.047
418.5157.589
428.2187.263
437.8486.997
447.5246.643
457.2826.336
467.0656.005
476.8075.717
486.5555.355
496.2825.093
506.0624.820
515.8214.582
525.5864.351
535.3744.093
545.1143.855
554.9513.625
564.7903.358
574.5983.207
584.4333.059
594.2332.902
604.0572.704
613.9242.515
623.7302.383
633.5702.264
643.3842.122
653.2262.016
663.0771.911
672.9471.816
682.8171.697
692.6811.579
702.5701.497
712.3991.389
722.2531.306
732.1221.212
742.0231.131
751.8921.045
761.7480.971
771.6400.893
781.5380.824
791.4060.760
801.2830.680
811.1820.609
821.0990.544
831.0060.473
840.8890.417
850.8100.371
860.7270.311
870.6300.252
880.5440.207
890.4530.157
900.3610.103
910.2510.057
920.1640.006
930.0950.000
940.0000.000
950.0000.000
960.0000.000
970.0000.000
980.0000.000
990.0000.000


About the historical and exceedance probablity product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ


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