Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Exceedance probability for Stanley River at Peachester


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Product list for Stanley River at Peachester


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Exceedance probability for Stanley River at Peachester( Sep 2014 )

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1014.816
208.724
305.992
404.168
503.017
602.121
701.514
801.023
900.590

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
138.480
230.196
327.063
424.559
522.757
620.337
718.705
817.236
915.830
1014.816
1114.001
1213.133
1312.495
1411.875
1511.215
1610.707
1710.133
189.569
199.090
208.724
218.379
228.006
237.752
247.392
257.172
266.986
276.710
286.496
296.253
305.992
315.761
325.532
335.356
345.186
354.960
364.783
374.611
384.455
394.329
404.168
414.015
423.905
433.813
443.690
453.581
463.462
473.357
483.222
493.122
503.017
512.923
522.831
532.726
542.628
552.530
562.415
572.349
582.283
592.212
602.121
612.032
621.969
631.911
641.841
651.788
661.734
671.685
681.622
691.558
701.514
711.454
721.407
731.353
741.305
751.254
761.208
771.160
781.117
791.076
801.023
810.975
820.930
830.880
840.839
850.805
860.759
870.713
880.677
890.635
900.590
910.548
920.501
930.453
940.396
950.357
960.314
970.254
980.206
990.154


About the exceedance probability product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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