Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Exceedance probability for Stanley River at Peachester


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Product list for Stanley River at Peachester


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Exceedance probability for Stanley River at Peachester( Aug 2014 )

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
103.65612.633
202.2807.826
301.6165.605
401.1644.066
500.8133.057
600.5552.240
700.3181.664
800.1201.177
900.0000.724

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
110.32331.835
27.64624.949
36.43922.388
45.70920.361
55.26718.914
64.84416.985
74.42015.692
84.17114.535
93.87013.430
103.65612.633
113.49811.994
123.26511.312
133.09210.811
142.95910.324
152.8059.804
162.6909.403
172.5738.949
182.4828.500
192.3638.118
202.2807.826
212.2107.549
222.1327.249
232.0627.044
242.0036.752
251.9276.574
261.8456.422
271.7906.196
281.7356.021
291.6725.820
301.6165.605
311.5725.413
321.5145.223
331.4715.076
341.4244.933
351.3674.742
361.3334.592
371.2954.446
381.2374.313
391.2074.205
401.1644.066
411.1223.935
421.0903.839
431.0493.760
440.9993.652
450.9633.557
460.9303.453
470.9033.359
480.8713.240
490.8403.151
500.8133.057
510.7862.973
520.7572.891
530.7292.796
540.7052.707
550.6772.618
560.6462.513
570.6212.452
580.5992.391
590.5802.325
600.5552.240
610.5212.158
620.4982.098
630.4702.043
640.4481.977
650.4301.927
660.4141.876
670.3941.829
680.3701.768
690.3471.707
700.3181.664
710.3001.606
720.2781.560
730.2531.507
740.2321.460
750.2141.409
760.1951.364
770.1781.316
780.1621.272
790.1391.231
800.1201.177
810.1021.128
820.0831.082
830.0681.031
840.0490.989
850.0320.952
860.0140.905
870.0000.856
880.0000.818
890.0000.773
900.0000.724
910.0000.679
920.0000.627
930.0000.573
940.0000.509
950.0000.465
960.0000.415
970.0000.345
980.0000.286
990.0000.221


About the exceedance probability product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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