Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Exceedance probability for Stanley River at Peachester


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Product list for Stanley River at Peachester


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Exceedance probability for Stanley River at Peachester( Apr 2014 )

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1050.797
2032.333
3023.303
4016.889
5012.640
609.187
706.751
804.701
902.801

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1114.447
292.737
384.444
477.762
572.909
666.317
761.810
857.702
953.715
1050.797
1148.430
1245.875
1343.979
1442.117
1540.115
1638.559
1736.783
1835.017
1933.502
2032.333
2131.225
2230.018
2329.189
2428.005
2527.277
2626.659
2725.734
2825.013
2924.190
3023.303
3122.508
3221.718
3321.106
3420.514
3519.716
3619.092
3718.482
3817.923
3917.472
4016.889
4116.337
4215.934
4315.600
4415.148
4514.748
4614.307
4713.914
4813.411
4913.037
5012.640
5112.285
5211.936
5311.535
5411.159
5510.784
5610.339
5710.081
589.823
599.545
609.187
618.836
628.585
638.354
648.074
657.860
667.645
677.446
687.191
696.933
706.751
716.505
726.311
736.087
745.890
755.675
765.486
775.283
785.099
794.925
804.701
814.494
824.301
834.085
843.908
853.757
863.557
873.354
883.194
893.006
902.801
912.614
922.397
932.173
941.908
951.724
961.518
971.227
980.987
990.720


About the exceedance probability product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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