Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Exceedance probability for Stanley River at Peachester


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Product list for Stanley River at Peachester


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Exceedance probability for Stanley River at Peachester(  )

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1021.19144.572
2013.12824.707
308.77316.145
406.10210.683
504.3997.397
603.1704.955
702.1733.377
801.3652.163
900.6511.157

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
154.667120.385
242.77794.340
337.28384.370
433.91276.345
530.99870.530
628.62262.672
725.98057.341
824.32352.528
922.61547.909
1021.19144.572
1119.88541.894
1218.78939.039
1318.04736.947
1417.20434.915
1516.46932.760
1615.75631.108
1715.10829.245
1814.35827.422
1913.76025.881
2013.12824.707
2112.56723.608
2212.10122.425
2311.67221.622
2411.20120.487
2510.77319.798
2610.30319.217
279.84418.357
289.45717.693
299.10716.943
308.77316.145
318.49015.438
328.17814.744
337.88914.211
347.54113.700
357.27513.021
366.99112.495
376.77011.986
386.50511.524
396.30211.155
406.10210.683
415.95010.239
425.7609.920
435.5749.656
445.4099.302
455.2418.991
465.0648.652
474.8978.352
484.7027.972
494.5567.692
504.3997.397
514.2587.136
524.1546.881
533.9846.592
543.8606.322
553.7366.056
563.6025.744
573.5155.565
583.3725.388
593.2725.198
603.1704.955
613.0774.720
622.9574.553
632.8644.401
642.7604.218
652.6494.079
662.5513.941
672.4653.814
682.3643.652
692.2743.491
702.1733.377
712.0683.226
721.9813.107
731.9042.972
741.8112.854
751.7342.726
761.6712.615
771.5972.496
781.5072.390
791.4352.290
801.3652.163
811.2892.048
821.2241.941
831.1661.823
841.0921.728
851.0101.647
860.9281.541
870.8531.436
880.7851.354
890.7171.259
900.6511.157
910.6011.065
920.5470.962
930.4930.857
940.4240.736
950.3530.655
960.2630.566
970.1870.445
980.1080.351
990.0000.252


About the exceedance probability product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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