Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Exceedance probability for Stanley River at Peachester


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Product list for Stanley River at Peachester


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Exceedance probability for Stanley River at Peachester(  )

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1072.438
2046.990
3033.028
4022.748
5016.039
6010.838
707.409
804.747
902.533

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1143.736
2120.741
3111.742
4104.356
598.896
691.317
786.004
881.051
976.125
1072.438
1169.388
1266.034
1363.501
1460.973
1558.210
1656.029
1753.501
1850.949
1948.725
2046.990
2145.329
2243.501
2342.235
2440.413
2539.284
2638.322
2736.873
2835.738
2934.437
3033.028
3131.762
3230.499
3329.519
3428.567
3527.287
3626.284
3725.303
3824.406
3923.682
4022.748
4121.865
4221.223
4320.691
4419.973
4519.339
4618.644
4718.026
4817.238
4916.655
5016.039
5115.491
5214.954
5314.341
5413.769
5513.203
5612.536
5712.152
5811.772
5911.362
6010.838
6110.330
629.969
639.639
649.242
658.941
668.639
678.362
688.010
697.657
707.409
717.078
726.818
736.521
746.262
755.982
765.738
775.479
785.245
795.026
804.747
814.493
824.258
833.999
843.789
853.611
863.379
873.148
882.967
892.758
902.533
912.332
922.104
931.874
941.608
951.429
961.234
970.970
980.764
990.547


About the exceedance probability product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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